December: New Years Eve Outlook

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December: New Years Eve Outlook

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Nov 25, 2013 11:31 am

Let's do this? First two weeks look fun in the long range.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 25, 2013 11:57 am

The extended range continues to advertise a –EPO regime and yet another very stout Aleutian Ridge developing. The operational 00Z European and GFS do suggest building heights across the NE Pacific and a developing Western trough. The latest 12Z GFS does suggest a strong 1050mb Arctic High pressure cell sliding S from Western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Plains during the early December time frame. Also the CFSv2 longer range guidance has been flip flopping from a warmer pattern to a colder pattern across Canada and the Lower 48. There is an anomalous warm pool of sea surface temperatures across the N Pacific Ocean and as we have just witnessed we can see some colder weather in such a synoptic pattern. The $64,000 question is will there be sub tropical moisture in place as the cold shallow Arctic air mass sinks south. We will see.
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11252013 00Z Euro GFS Compare test8.gif
11252013 CFSv2 wk1_wk2_20131124_NAsfcT.gif
11252013 CFSv2 wk3_wk4_20131124_NAsfcT.gif
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby Portastorm » Mon Nov 25, 2013 12:00 pm

Nice graphics, sir. Suspect we'll have a lot to talk about in the days ahead.

Sorry for anyone in south central or southeast Texas who expected a winter storm out of this system with "wintry" precip, but hey ... considering where we are in the calendar, this current weather event is pretty amazing. We're looking at 30-degree-below-normal temps for this time of year. That's unusual.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby Portastorm » Mon Nov 25, 2013 1:28 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:New op GFS not exciting, and remember, cold without precip is just unpleasant. GFS does have a light freeze this week, which is still November, nothing with scares me, however.


This is true ... however ... I think it bears mention that the 12z GFS operational run to which you refer is not in sync with the GFS ensembles, the Euro ensembles, the last several cycles of the Euro operational, and the NCEP super ensembles. In other words, it's worthless.

Bastardi yesterday on Twitter indicated that the longer range computer models are suggesting a pattern ahead much like December 1983. And we all should remember what that one did to south central and southeast Texas. Seems a bit extreme to me, but so is the current weather we're experiencing. So, who knows.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Nov 25, 2013 2:25 pm

Yep... I'd love a December 1983 or 1989.

1983 was a power system that froze the coast.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 25, 2013 3:29 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:New op GFS not exciting, and remember, cold without precip is just unpleasant. GFS does have a light freeze this week, which is still November, nothing with scares me, however.


This is true ... however ... I think it bears mention that the 12z GFS operational run to which you refer is not in sync with the GFS ensembles, the Euro ensembles, the last several cycles of the Euro operational, and the NCEP super ensembles. In other words, it's worthless.

Bastardi yesterday on Twitter indicated that the longer range computer models are suggesting a pattern ahead much like December 1983. And we all should remember what that one did to south central and southeast Texas. Seems a bit extreme to me, but so is the current weather we're experiencing. So, who knows.


December 1983 and 1989 freezes are outliers like February 1895 and 1899 freezes.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:39 am

Very impressive looking cold pattern developing for early December via the overnight guidance if they are correct.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Nov 26, 2013 4:13 pm

BWAHAHAHAHA (Evil laugh)... Did anyone see the 10 day Euro Ensemble Run?

Record breaking would be a phrase that would come to mind.
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby SusieinLP » Tue Nov 26, 2013 4:41 pm

I'm with you, Ed. I like my plants and pipes. Go figure.... I was around to endure frozen pipes in both 83 and 89. Careful what we wish for. I remember brown oleanders. Brown... Oh well, nothing to do but watch and see. I would love for the rain trend to continue. I saw we could get more rain next week but nothing too cold. Highs in 60s?


Don't get me wrong. I'm loving this cold weather and hope it's cooler than normal this winter. Just not 83, 89
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Re: December weather -- Actual Dec weather from the North Po

Postby vci_guy2003 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:21 pm

Can someone tell me what the long range models show? Temperature-wise?
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