December: New Years Eve Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby TxJohn » Thu Dec 12, 2013 4:43 pm

And the backlash has begun....right before the 4pm newscasts. Houston mets are backtracking and doing damage control.

I'm loving the Facebook posts of our weathermen (speaking on the uncertainty but backing away from the teens) and the comments....

:lol:
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:00 pm

There isn't any backlash, and all temps are still in play.

One thing we know for sure, is we will be below normal.
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby txsnowmaker » Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:16 pm

TxJohn wrote:And the backlash has begun....right before the 4pm newscasts. Houston mets are backtracking and doing damage control.

I'm loving the Facebook posts of our weathermen (speaking on the uncertainty but backing away from the teens) and the comments....

:lol:



Soon enough, you will learn like the rest of us have that it is generally best to follow the thinking of wxman57 rather than model-to-model/run-to-run shifts and the latest longer-range tv met forecasts. If he doesn't think the models that are losing the cold air/pushing it east will turn out to be accurate, then I won't either... ;)
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby Stormrider » Thu Dec 12, 2013 6:34 pm

I don't have a problem with the early heads up on a potential winter event. I understand that the we're talking about a relatively loooong time in model land. I also know that because such occurances are rare in SE Texas, there's not a lot of historical data to work with. I kinda think there is a possiblity we'll get slammed sometime this winter, just don't know when.
I remember the BIg Chill of 1983. It was about 70 in Galveston that morning. By sunset, temps were in the low 30's and dropping. I also remember patching busted pipes under the house in 20 degree weather and waiting in long lines to buy plumbing supplies. A lot of the older houses have pier and beam foundations with exposed pipes. Since prolonged freezes don't happen that often, wrapped pipes were rare.

That said, being forewarned of a possible prolonged freeze might get people thinking about preparing, just sayin'.
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby David Paul » Thu Dec 12, 2013 6:49 pm

That's the idea Stormrider, just an early heads up on what COULD be coming so people can plan ahead. If we don't get pipe busting cold, I'll be very happy.
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby tireman4 » Thu Dec 12, 2013 6:58 pm

Thank you for posting David. Your presence here is most welcomed. The GFS is notorious about losing systems about 3-5 days before the event and then they "suddenly" appear again. We are still WAY out before the models finally settle down. There will be lots to talk about as the days wear on until Christmas. My advice ( and I am only an amateur here) is to be prepared for whatever comes our way and be vigilant. This will indeed be a "bear watch" the rest of this month.
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby vci_guy2003 » Thu Dec 12, 2013 7:36 pm

So David Paul said highs in the 20s yesterday and today he says 50s. I'd say that's quite a retraction. :roll:
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby TexasBreeze » Thu Dec 12, 2013 7:43 pm

People getting so worked up over model forecasts 2 weeks away is just crazy. Models change daily. It was supposed to be brutal cold low 20's this week according to GFS runs from earlier last week. It didn't verify. Extremes are guaranteed in runs 2 wks away.
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Re: December: Moderating Temps/Rain Late Week

Postby Paul Robison » Thu Dec 12, 2013 8:01 pm

TxJohn wrote:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
TxJohn wrote:I'm excitedly waiting for this evening's newscasts. It'll be quite funny.



We got another emotional one from model to model run. Is this Paul Robison redux? :lol:

Actually, tonight's forecast will probably say "there's a lot of uncertainty in regards to Christmas week, but we continue to be on lookout for an arctic intrustion...." or something like that.



And the story goes on to say:
"Models are starting to trend away from the potential of dangerously cold Arctic air however. If this trend continues SE Texas may dodge the bullet....which is good news because we don't need any busted pipes and dangerously cold weather. But stay tuned as the models are having a hard time with this Arctic intrusion...we're not a 100% safe just yet ok folks *goes to green screen* "



Thank you for mentioning me. Sorry to troll but unfortunately I got a pet peeve here folks and it goes like this:


Everybody's talking about burst pipes and water deluges. And yes, that's a legit concern, but....

BUT.......

WHAT ABOUT POWER LINES AND ELECTRICITY?
Have y'all forgotten that it was only two years ago that ERCOT ran rolling blackouts because of these temperatures?!?!


Please say this isn't the same thing as 1989 or 2011!
It'd make me feel a lot better.
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