OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

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OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

Postby ticka1 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:46 am

Looks like models are still trying to usher in our first real cold front on the 2013 Fall season - around October 6th. I am looking forward to it!!!!
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Re: OCTOBER: First Cold Front ushered in?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:37 am

Typhoon Pabuk remnants screaming across the Pacific Ocean are a sign the westerly's are about to kick in. Usually these Western Pacific storms moving E wreak havoc with the guidance and I suspect this storm will be no different. There are indications that a very deep trough will be carved out across the Western US as the system moves toward the Pacific NW bringing significant low elevation rains and higher elevation snow totals. My hunch is the second week of October may bring that first legitimate shot of colder air to Texas as the jet stream buckles and drops a bit further S than the Canadian border. We will see.

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Re: OCTOBER: First Cold Front ushered in?

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:32 pm

The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggesting severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.
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Re: OCTOBER: First Cold Front ushered in?

Postby sambucol » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:07 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggestinng severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.

What kind of much cooler temps can we expect hopefully? :)
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Re: OCTOBER: First Cold Front ushered in?

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:27 pm

^^
Maybe some night time lows in the 50's with highs in the 70's. Perhaps a bit cooler further N. We will see.
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Re: OCTOBER: First Cold Front ushered in?

Postby sambucol » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:27 pm

Thanks! Hoping it happens :)
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Re: OCTOBER: First Cold Front ushered in?

Postby Paul Robison » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:31 pm

sambucol wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggestinng severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.

What kind of much cooler temps can we expect hopefully? :)



Well, the forecast models are still flipflopping around with the strength and exact timing of the front, but all the models (that I know of) are in agreement that this will be a fast front with much less chances for rain than what we had over the weekend. FWIW, here's a quote from the SPC:

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE
WRN TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THUR/D4...AND INTO
THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON FRI/D5. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON D4 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ON
FRI/D5 NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SRN MN...IA...WI...AND NRN
IL...
WITH A LESSER THREAT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS FAR SW AS
OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGEST VEERING WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COEXIST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. IN THIS
SCENARIO...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A SQUALL LINE
AS THE STRONGEST FORCING SURGES EWD. FOR SRN AREAS...LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE AS STEEP...AND FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGLY LINEAR.



Was this helpful? Or was I minimizing rain/storm potential too much? Answers to these questions would be greatly appreciated.

P.S. What wind speeds can we expect in the area the day of the cold front? Anyone know?
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Re: OCTOBER: Rain Chances & First Strong Fall Cold Front

Postby txflagwaver » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:34 am

OK...so will we get some of this or will it split around again?
Looks like a split...

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Re: OCTOBER: Rain Chances & First Strong Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:34 am

The upper low over E Texas combines with deep Gulf moisture and a diffuse frontal boundary that will lift N are a recipe for showers and storms as we are seeing this morning. Friday night/early Saturday that much anticipated strong fall cold front should rapidly move in and perhaps a line of showers or storms will accompany that front. It does look like some fall like continental air will be pulled down by a deep upper low over the Northern/Central Plains. The first snow of the season may be on tap for the Northern Plains as well as a severe weather event well to our N. Time for that first pot of home made deer chili as the temps will cool to the low to mid 50's and warm to the mid to upper 70's with low 80's near the Coast.

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Re: OCTOBER: Rain Chances & First Strong Fall Cold Front

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:40 am

srainhoutx wrote:The upper low over E Texas combines with deep Gulf moisture and a diffuse frontal boundary that will lift N are a recipe for showers and storms as we are seeing this morning. Friday night/early Saturday that much anticipated strong fall cold front should rapidly move in and perhaps a line of showers or storms will accompany that front. It does look like some fall like continental air will be pulled down by a deep upper low over the Northern/Central Plains. The first snow of the season may be on tap for the Northern Plains as well as a severe weather event well to our N. Time for that first pot of home made deer chili as the temps will cool to the low to mid 50's and warm to the mid to upper 70's with low 80's near the Coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif


The heat of the day will produce more thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Nice to see a cold front for a change. 8-)
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