OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER: Coastal Showers Monday. Nice Week To Follow.

Postby Rip76 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:42 pm

I can't stop laughing.
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Re: OCTOBER: Coastal Showers Monday. Nice Week To Follow.

Postby Rip76 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:47 pm

Anyway, that was some hairy weather in Portland and Ingleside today.
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Re: OCTOBER: Coastal Showers Monday. Nice Week To Follow.

Postby Paul Robison » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:54 pm

Could Texas (ne'e Houston) be in for something like this on Saturday?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec37TJGjXd4
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Re: OCTOBER: Coastal Showers Monday. Nice Week To Follow.

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:42 am

Clearing skies this morning with frontal system now pushing off the coast. Very nice weather through Friday.
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Re: OCTOBER: Pleasant Work Week. Halloween Storm Coming?

Postby Paul Robison » Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:38 pm

Keep vigilant!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY
NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HILL
COUNTRY MAY SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
DRY AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION...SO ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO WARM DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A WEAK S/W ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE RETURN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/NOGAPS AND
ECMWF. THE GFS/NOGAPS HAS THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER PUSHING THE FROPA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ATTM WE WILL USE THE GFS TIMING. ALL MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FRONT
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH AMPLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AS IT MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES.


THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INTERESTING AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING EAST IN NEAR-ZONAL FLOW DIGS
DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
WITHIN A MORE-MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT...AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY...TO INCREASE POPS TO MODERATE CHANCE. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THERE HAS BEEN
(RECENTLY) DECENT AGREEMENT OF THIS S/W`S TIMING OF PASSAGE.
EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BENIGN AS THE S/W IS
ABSORBED BY A BROAD EASTERN U.S TROUGH WHILE AN AGGRESSIVE UPPER
ROCKY MOUNTAIN 5H TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE ENSEMBLE AGREES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHWEST
AND SLOW BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG AND SHARP TROUGH AT MID-WEEK. AS OF NOW...IF NWP RUNS
REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS SYSTEM WILL PACK
QUITE THE PUNCH NEEDED TO GENERATE STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE OCTOBER`S WEATHER CONCLUDING WITH QUITE THE
THE BANG. 31


Don't any of y'all remember what happened on Feb. 2, 2011? Christmas day 2012? Same kind of deal, folks! Get ready for this like you would a tropical storm or hurricane! This cold front is armed and dangerous!
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Re: OCTOBER: Pleasant Work Week. Halloween Storm Coming?

Postby David Paul » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:55 pm

Wa...???
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Re: OCTOBER: Pleasant Work Week. Halloween Storm Coming?

Postby Paul Robison » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:31 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Just me, but I might wait a couple of days before going into full panic. At least wait until something shows up nearby on SPC SWODY4-8

If one trusts the 12Z GFS 180 hours out, 500 mb winds are much stronger North of here, and a positively tilted trough sometimes reduces the fun-derstorm potential.


Well, Ed, the current (18Z) GFS run does keep the worst of the rain and storms to the north of us AS USUAL! HAHAHA!

Image

BUT:
I'll state my chief concern in one word: SUPERCELLS. Anyone think those likely with this Halloween cold front?
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Re: OCTOBER: Pleasant Work Week. Halloween Storm Coming?

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:46 am

A cool morning as temps are in the 50s and a few upper 40s across SE TX. The beautiful weather continues today through Friday.
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Re: OCTOBER: Pleasant Work Week. Halloween Storm Coming?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:47 am

Morning update from Jeff:

Rather amplified upper air pattern will continue with troughing across the eastern US and ridging over the western US which will lead to dry and pleasant weather in the middle of the nation.

Cold front that crossed the area Tuesday morning is well offshore with surface high pressure and dry air in place resulting in a cool morning across the area with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Surface high will remain in place through Friday keeping dewpoints low and rain chances at zero. A fast moving upper level disturbance will swing through the trough over the central plains this weekend and as this happens winds will swing around to the SE and the transport of Gulf moisture will begin across the area. Looks fairly dry still for Saturday, but lift from the short wave and increasing moisture should produce increasing clouds by afternoon and a slight chance of rainfall by late evening into Sunday morning. Models continue to differ with the intensity of the upper air disturbance so rain chances could go up some if a stronger disturbance verifies.

Short wave passes to the east, but no cold front or significant air mass change is expect and moisture will continue to increase. Pattern transitions into a big trough over the western US by early next week with a fairly potent looking storm system dropping into the SW US by this period. System looks to move into the plains by the middle of the week and with good moisture return over TX showers and thunderstorms appear in the offing in/around Halloween. Still a good ways out but this could be a pretty potent storm system.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: OCTOBER: Pleasant Work Week. Halloween Storm Coming?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:42 pm

The 12Z suite of guidance is slowly coming together in suggesting a significant Fall Season storm may well develop mid next week as a rather deep and strong cold core upper low cross the Desert SW and heads ENE across New Mexico and the Southern Plains. There still remain some timing differences that one would expect a week out in model world, but it does appear that potions of the Southern Rockies may see a significant winter like storm and potions of Texas and Oklahoma may see a rather potent severe weather episode that usually accompanies a strong storm complex during the Fall transition in weather patterns. We will see.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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