June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

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Re: June - hints in EPac tropics?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 28, 2013 5:52 pm

A couple of feature we'll need to monitor as the weekend approaches. The Global GFS and Euro both are suggesting a frontal boundary dropping S into Texas and stalling. Also EPAC Tropical Depression 2 remnants may well be crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche as abundant tropical moisture pools from both the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. Currently the reliable models suggest no real development in the Western Gulf, but the GFDL does attempt to draw a weak system N. The GFDL usually does not handle things well and is considered an outlier. That said increased moisture across the Western Gulf may fester next week and increase rainfall across NE Mexico as well as S and S Central Texas and possibly into SE Texas as that frontal boundary hangs around. We will see.

05282013 18Z GFS f114.gif


05282013 12Z Euro f120.gif


05282013 12Z GFDL slp20.png
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Re: June - hints in EPac tropics?

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue May 28, 2013 9:59 pm

srainhoutx wrote:A couple of feature we'll need to monitor as the weekend approaches. The Global GFS and Euro both are suggesting a frontal boundary dropping S into Texas and stalling. Also EPAC Tropical Depression 2 remnants may well be crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche as abundant tropical moisture pools from both the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. Currently the reliable models suggest no real development in the Western Gulf, but the GFDL does attempt to draw a weak system N. The GFDL usually does not handle things well and is considered an outlier. That said increased moisture across the Western Gulf may fester next week and increase rainfall across NE Mexico as well as S and S Central Texas and possibly into SE Texas as that frontal boundary hangs around. We will see.

05282013 18Z GFS f114.gif


05282013 12Z Euro f120.gif


05282013 12Z GFDL slp20.png


This could be interesting. This could be like Tropical Storm Allison of 1989. It formed form East Pacific Hurricane Cosme. It dumped heavy rain as much as 20 inches in Houston area and 30 inches in Central Louisiana. Allison was replaced by Andrea following 2001 Allison. Deja vu? :shock: :o
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Re: June - hints in EPac tropics?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 31, 2013 7:42 am

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level trough over the plains continues to support daily outbreaks of severe weather and this pattern will continue both today and Saturday.

Locally a moist and unstable air mass continues to advect inland off the Gulf of Mexico with periodic showers streaming northward in the low level flow. Gusty south winds feeding low pressure systems to our north have mitigated any hopes of a seabreeze boundary and more organized convection. Once temperature reach the upper 80’s expect scattered showers to develop and move rapidly northward across the region. Small size of these showers in this tropical air mass and fast forward motions suggest isolated rainfall amounts of only about 1/10th of an inch.

Changes take place over the weekend as a slow moving cool front sags southward into the region from N TX. Active convection on Saturday to our north will likely spill southward into our region late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Not sure in what form or how organized this convection will be, but our northern counties stand a chance of seeing thunderstorms Saturday night. Fairly wet period looks in store on Sunday with the slow moving frontal boundary crossing the area combined with a fairly moist tropical air mass. Models are not overly excited about rainfall amounts, but with storm motions slowing and the boundary laying down west-east across the region could see some heavy rainfall in a few bands.

Front should actually push into the northern Gulf Monday allowing a brief period of offshore flow and drier air to work into the region. All eyes will then focus on the Gulf of Mexico next week as nearly all guidance spins up a tropical system toward the middle to end of next week. Current trough from Florida to the remains of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche will remain in place into next week. A broad surface low is forecasted to develop out of this trough and move generally NNE to NE late next week and this is supported by several of the global forecast models. The system appears large and very wet on its eastern flanks with wind shear likely impacting from the west…a typical early season Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone. At this time is would appear that impacts would be well east of our region and focused across the central/eastern Gulf coast region toward next weekend. Should this solution verify, increased NE winds on the western flank of the system would likely help pull dry air SW into SE TX toward the end of next week and help push high temperatures into the middle 90’s.


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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby unome » Sat Jun 01, 2013 8:44 am

from NESDIS Precip products: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/

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keep an eye out for TX as the day wears on, I hope we can get some rain

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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 02, 2013 4:05 am

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TXC225-373-455-021100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0034.130602T0853Z-130602T1100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-POLK TX-
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT 348 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
TRINITY...CORRIGAN AND GROVETON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 02, 2013 5:43 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TXZ163-176>178-195>199-211>213-021045-
BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-WALKER TX-AUSTIN TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
MADISON TX-WASHINGTON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-GRIMES TX-
HOUSTON TX-
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS...WALKER...NORTHERN AUSTIN...NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS...CENTRAL WALLER...EASTERN MADISON...WASHINGTON...WESTERN SAN
JACINTO...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...GRIMES AND SOUTHERN HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 447 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST
OF MADISONVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NAVASOTA TO 7 MILES WEST OF
SOMERVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BELLVILLE...PINEHURST...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SOMERVILLE...
WALLER...MAGNOLIA...NEW WAVERLY...PINE ISLAND...MONTGOMERY...
STAGECOACH...BURTON...MIDWAY AND TODD MISSION.

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 02, 2013 6:01 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 548 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR PANORAMA VILLAGE...OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CONROE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...WILLIS...
OAK RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...PORTER HEIGHTS...
PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...MAGNOLIA...ROMAN
FOREST...SPLENDORA...CHATEAU WOODS...MONTGOMERY AND WOODLOCH.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby unome » Sun Jun 02, 2013 6:02 am

anticipation :D

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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 02, 2013 6:23 am

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
611 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-POLK TX-
611 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 607 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
THREE HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
TRINITY...CORRIGAN AND GROVETON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: June - Showers/Storms Sunday. Watching The Gulf

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 02, 2013 6:31 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TXZ187-203>205-219-220-021230-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BEXAR-FRIO-MEDINA-UVALDE-
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...
NORTHEASTERN FRIO...SOUTHERN BANDERA...BEXAR...EASTERN UVALDE AND
MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

AT 625 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
TARPLEY TO MEDINA LAKE TO LACOSTE TO ELMENDORF...AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
CASTROVILLE...
HONDO...
DEVINE...
POTEET...
RIO MEDINA...
LACOSTE...
SOMERSET...
UTOPIA...
BADER...
PEARSON...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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