February: Calm Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: February: Winter Weather Advisory For Austin Area Sunday

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 11, 2012 6:11 pm

Continuing the 'theme' of the active week ahead, Winter Storm Recon has been tasked for a C-130 out of Alaska on tomorrow afternoon. My hunch is this will not be the last mission and there may well be G-IV missions tasked out of HI as well before all is said and done. These missions will assist all guidance in the upcoming pattern, so expect continued changes as that additional data is ingested. While we know that guidance cannot be trusted more than 3-4 days out, I do suspect as the MJO nears phase 1 later in the upcoming week, there will be subtle differences in just how the late week storm complex plays out. While some discount the DGEX, it can offer hints of what the pattern may offer and the 18Z run paints an interesting picture. We will see...


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 AM EST SAT 11 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72--
A. P56/ DROP 9 44.3N 151.0W/ 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 17WSC TRACK56
C. 12/1930Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 13/0600Z.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Attachments
02112012 18Z DGEX 18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county168.gif
02112012 18Z DGEX 18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county174.gif
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Re: February: Winter Weather Advisory For Austin Area Sunday

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:50 pm

The 00Z WRF/NMM suggests temps borderline at best for areas N of I-20 RE: wintry mischief. What that model does suggest is a very damp Monday...
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02122012 00Z WRF NMM wf42.gif
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Re: February: Winter Weather Advisory For Austin Area Sunday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:05 am

Our Pro Met hriverajr, is reporting heavy sleet in Del Rio this past hour...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5STksxSGHQ

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Re: February: Winter Weather Advisory For Austin Area Sunday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:26 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...


.COLD DRY AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. WITH
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FORM INTO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WINTRY MIX COULD RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO THREE MAINLY ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-121900-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.120212T1200Z-120213T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
500 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.

* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.
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Re: February: Winter Weather Advisory For Austin Area Sunday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:39 am

Code: Select all
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
714 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     SLEET            2 NW DEL RIO            29.40N 100.92W
02/12/2012  E0.2 INCH        VAL VERDE          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            GETTING A MIX OF SLEET AND ICE PELLETS ACCUMULATING ON
            GRASSY SURFACES.



Code: Select all
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     SLEET            UVALDE                  29.22N  99.78W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        UVALDE             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORTED SLEET IN UVALDE RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.



Code: Select all
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     SLEET            2 WSW DEL RIO           29.37N 100.92W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        VAL VERDE          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CREATING SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
            CONCRETE.

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Re: February: Winter Weather Advisory For Austin Area Sunday

Postby Portastorm » Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:38 am

EWX just bumped up the WWA to a Winter Storm Warning for the Del Rio area and western Hill Country. This event is clearly not behaving as some suggested yesterday per the modeling.
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Re: February: Winter Storm Warning For Hill Country Area

Postby jasons » Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:48 am

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES


A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement. :)
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Re: February: Winter Storm Warning For Hill Country Area

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:51 am

jasons wrote:
* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES


A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement. :)

There is always a Debbie Downer in the bunch... :roll: Oh course they haven't had any real snow to speak of this year, so it makes these little events all the sweeter... :P
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Re: February: Winter Storm Warning For Hill Country Area

Postby hriverajr » Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:52 am

jasons wrote:
* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES


A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement. :)


We kind of laugh when you northerners have heat advisories for 95 degree weather in the summer :)
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Re: February: Winter Storm Warning For Hill Country Area

Postby Portastorm » Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:53 am

jasons wrote:
* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES


A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement. :)


C'mon Jason, you've been here long enough to know that it doesn't take much to seriously impact travel. And one to two inches in the Hill Country and/or Del Rio will definitely SERIOUSLY impact travel.
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