January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just went out for lunch at one of my favorite spots (Burger House off Airport) and that sure is some beautiful winter weather!! It doesn't get any better than this - sunny and mid 70s in January (except, maybe, when it's sunny and low 80s in January).

Taking a look at the 12Z models - the Euro is MUCH farther north with the upper low on Tuesday the 24th. Takes the center across the northern TX panhandle vs. the Big Bend area. 12Z GFS has the upper low center a BIT farther north - over Minneapolis! That's quite a difference. 12Z Canadian doesn't go out far enough, but it doesn't show anything in TX or MN prior to the 24th, just a big upper low off southern CA. Needless to say, there's no model agreement that far out.


Still a severe weather threat, wxman57... ;)

01162012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif


01162012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby BiggieSmalls » Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:52 pm

Anyone else keep logging onto here expecting to see talk that the "models have backed off" the potential winter storm next week? :cry:

Wouldn't be the first time this Winter....
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby hriverajr » Mon Jan 16, 2012 2:14 pm

All that warm weather gloating is gonna bite you in the *** wxman57 lol just watch :)
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:00 pm

There's nothing beautiful about temps over 65 degrees from November until March.


With that said, I saw srain use the word CONCERNING when referencing the anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska. Care to elaborate?
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:18 pm

hriverajr wrote:All that warm weather gloating is gonna bite you in the *** wxman57 lol just watch :)


Let it try to bite me! ;-) Maybe I'll take a vacation day Friday to go for a long bike ride. I generally avoid vacation in winter, but not when temps are in the 70s. Tell you what, I'll take a 100F day like we had last summer any day over last weekend's temps.

Lots of energy and lowering heights in the Gulf of Alaska is troubling for us warm-mongerers. It has the potential to pop the ridge up and bring some cold air down south if it persists.
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Let it try to bite me! ;-) Maybe I'll take a vacation day Friday to go for a long bike ride. I generally avoid vacation in winter, but not when temps are in the 70s. Tell you what, I'll take a 100F day like we had last summer any day over last weekend's temps.

Lots of energy and lowering heights in the Gulf of Alaska is troubling for us warm-mongerers. It has the potential to pop the ridge up and bring some cold air down south if it persists.


Be careful what you wish for................

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Last edited by Ptarmigan on Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:
hriverajr wrote:All that warm weather gloating is gonna bite you in the *** wxman57 lol just watch :)


Let it try to bite me! ;-) Maybe I'll take a vacation day Friday to go for a long bike ride. I generally avoid vacation in winter, but not when temps are in the 70s. Tell you what, I'll take a 100F day like we had last summer any day over last weekend's temps.

Lots of energy and lowering heights in the Gulf of Alaska is troubling for us warm-mongerers. It has the potential to pop the ridge up and bring some cold air down south if it persists.



I would love nothing more than a nice February blast that cripples Southeast Texas with a fierce Ice Storm equipped with Thunder and Lightning. NOW THAT'S WEATHER! Give me the Tennessee Ice Storm from the early 2000s that had 3 inch sheets of ice (freezing rain) and 6 inches of sleet over a 4 day period.
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby hriverajr » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:37 pm

These seemingly never ending model runs of almost zonal flow are starting to get on my nerves... :evil:
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:43 pm

hriverajr wrote:These seemingly never ending model runs of almost zonal flow are starting to get on my nerves... :evil:


You'd think with all that energy zipping west to east that something would buckle, eventually. Euro and GFS shift the Polar upper-level low westward to Alaska next week. That's a change. Then the GFS takes it back to the north toward the Pole. No good indication of any southward push of Arctic air.
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Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 16, 2012 4:05 pm

For what it's worth, the 12Z Euro ensmble mean is just as strong with the Gulf of Alaska 5H anomalies and a touch S regarding the upper low track for early next week. That said, there remains a lot of spread, but that spread is further to the E rather than N.
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