ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:17 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 cooled.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby stormlover » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:53 am

srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:03 am

stormlover wrote:srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?


Neutral looks more likely than El Nino for Hurricane Season. Watching carefully the potential for 2 very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves crossing the Atlantic Basin in May. I'll address that in our 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussion Topic in our Hurricane Central Section over the next week or so. It's almost that time of year when all eyes turn to the Tropics.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby stormlover » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:04 am

thanks for the response!!!
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:55 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Sun May 06, 2018 5:14 pm

Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 8222089216

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Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:

-Weak or moderate #ElNiño favored by Nov.
-Atlantic ACE at 70% of normal.
-Anomalous warmth this summer focused over NW & NE U.S.
-Transitions to a warm fall in the NE.
-Caribbean drought potential.
-Hawaii tropical cyclone risk.

Image

EURO is forecasting weak to moderate El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby srainhoutx » Sun May 06, 2018 5:19 pm

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation... ;)
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon May 07, 2018 6:50 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. All other regions cooled.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon May 07, 2018 6:54 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation... ;)


I usually take long term forecasts with a grain of salt.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon May 14, 2018 7:12 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed.
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