ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:10 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.0ºC
Niño 3 = -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.725ºC or -0.7ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3 = -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.7ºC

Average
-0.95ºC or -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Looks like it is warming up overall. Many forecast models are saying we should be out of La Nina by spring. We may have El Nino by summer or peak season of August to October.

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:46 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
-0.175ºC or -0.2ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.0ºC
Niño 3 = -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.725ºC or -0.7ºC

The warming trend is happening as La Nina is fading. Interestingly, Region 1+2 has warmed up considerably and is in El Nino territory.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Most models are now predicting a weak El Nino by July to August. If true, it would be a first time since 2009 to go from La Nina to El Nino. Winters in those years tend to be cold.

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:58 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.4ºC
Niño 3 = 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
0ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
-0.175ºC or -0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It is only La Nina in Region 4. The rest is Neutral and 1+2 is El Nino. We are pretty much in Neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby unome » Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:51 am

I didn't read it as being neutral just yet - from the 2/27 pdf:

"• La Niña has peaked across the equatorial Pacific.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remain at least 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, but have warmed considerably across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean in the last couple of weeks.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies remain consistent with La Niña.
• La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.*"

"• The majority of models predict the return of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-April-May) and continuing through the summer."
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Feb 28, 2012 10:23 am

maybe not tropical weather, but El Nino does typically yield wet conditions for Houston
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:03 pm

yep, I've seen some wild wild swings during Winter El Nino years...
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:27 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.5ºC
Niño 3 = 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 1.1ºC

Average
0.05ºC or 0.1ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.4ºC
Niño 3 = 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
0ºC

This is really interesting. Nino 1+2 is warming, while 3.4 and 4 are cooling. Strange.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:28 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:18 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.4ºC

Average
-0.3ºC


Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.5ºC
Niño 3 = 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 1.1ºC

Average
0.05ºC or 0.1ºC

It is starting to cool again. I think it could be fluctuations.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:57 am

IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction for NINO3.4 Region by Atlantic peak season.
ASO 2012 12% 54% 34%

A 34% chance that El Nino will develop by then.

By Late Fall and Early Winter
NDJ 2013 8% 51% 41%

A 41% chance that El Nino will develop by then.

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http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... gure3.html
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