ENSO Updates

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ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:16 pm

This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

Average
-1ºC

Last Week's ENSO SST
Niño 4= -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC

Average
-0.95ºC or -1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Not much change in La Nina, borderline weak/moderate La Nina. Not a strong La Nina like last winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:28 am

Someone please give me a strong El Nino for a couple winters in a row. That would be nice.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:20 pm

This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

Average
-0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Last Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

Average
-1ºC

Some regions are cooling, while others warming. Not much change overall. Weak/Moderate La Nina right now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jan 04, 2012 7:51 pm

This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

Last Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

Average
-0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

La Nina has slightly strengthened. We are in a moderate La Nina. It is not strong like last year at this time.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jan 04, 2012 7:53 pm

La Niña persists over Pacific
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

La Niña conditions continue over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña may be close to its peak, with a gradual decline expected over the remainder of the austral summer and early autumn.

Climate indicators of ENSO continue to exceed La Niña thresholds. Despite some cooling (i.e. strengthening of the La Niña pattern) at the surface of the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures remain less extreme (i.e., warmer) than at the same time in 2010-11. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña also strengthened slightly over the last fortnight, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) monthly December value of +23 being the highest value since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in autumn 2011. The effects of this La Niña can be seen in Australia, with much of the country receiving above average rainfall since October.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average, while there is an increased tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For the cyclone season so far, three tropical cyclones have occurred in the Australian region. For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks, please see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.


La Nina is at its peak according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:50 pm

This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

Last Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

No change with overall La Nina.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) stopped the downward trend. The more downward trend SOI is, La Nina is weakening.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:44 pm

This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

Lask Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Some models are seeing El Nino by the peak season of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Most see Neutral at this time. Should be interesting.

Code: Select all
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JFM 2012 97% 3% 0.1%
FMA 2012 79% 21% 0.2%
MAM 2012 52% 48% 0.4%
AMJ 2012 35% 61% 4%
MJJ 2012 29% 56% 15%
JJA 2012 25% 55% 20%
JAS 2012 22% 55% 23%
ASO 2012 22% 54% 24%
SON 2012 21% 54% 25%

- Made in Jan 2012


Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:49 pm

Niño 4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3 = -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.85ºC or -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:26 pm

La Nina getting a tad weaker
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:10 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3 = -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.7ºC

Average
-0.95ºC or -1.0ºC

Lask Week's ENSO SST
Niño 4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3 = -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.85ºC or -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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