ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:22 am

GBinGrimes wrote:Tried doing some research on whether La Nina is a cooler or warmer winter for us. Based on previous post who I know loves cold weather it must be warmer, in theory, for our region. This would stink. Bad.

However, the graphs that I found that display typical La Nina wind flow portrays cooler/colder air that is closer and available to be tapped by a dipping jet stream, should there be one.

We certainly can't do anything about the weather but man oh man...we need a couple of solid (not pipe busting) freezes to even the score from the past 2 benign winters.


La Nina's can have very cold blasts, but they typically are roller coaster ride Winters, at least from my memories. HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold with typically drier than normal Winters.

I prefer Weak to Moderate El Ninos. That typically gives us consistent cool to cold temps with overrunning moisture.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:17 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
GBinGrimes wrote:Tried doing some research on whether La Nina is a cooler or warmer winter for us. Based on previous post who I know loves cold weather it must be warmer, in theory, for our region. This would stink. Bad.

However, the graphs that I found that display typical La Nina wind flow portrays cooler/colder air that is closer and available to be tapped by a dipping jet stream, should there be one.

We certainly can't do anything about the weather but man oh man...we need a couple of solid (not pipe busting) freezes to even the score from the past 2 benign winters.


La Nina's can have very cold blasts, but they typically are roller coaster ride Winters, at least from my memories. HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold with typically drier than normal Winters.

I prefer Weak to Moderate El Ninos. That typically gives us consistent cool to cold temps with overrunning moisture.


La Nina winters are warmer because they are drier. Also, drier air makes it colder. Some of the most prolonged freezes happened in La Nina like in 1951, 1983, and 1989.

El Nino winters have been the coldest, especially weak to moderate El Nino like in 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1963-1964, 1972-1973, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2009-2010.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:56 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 4 cooled. Region 3.4 is the same.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:41 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is unchanged.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:56 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

All regions warmed.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:47 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

We may not see La Nina.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:21 am

Ptarmigan wrote:This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

We may not see La Nina.



I would be good with that.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:54 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 cooled.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby sambucol » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:59 am

Ptarmigan wrote:This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 cooled.


What does this mean for our fall and winter temps? Thanks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:39 pm

sambucol wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 cooled.


What does this mean for our fall and winter temps? Thanks.


Climate Prediction Center Official Forecasts Dec-Jan-Feb 2017-18
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... php?lead=2
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