SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby tireman4 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:32 pm

Rain Since September 1
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby javakah » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:57 pm

Kind of neat- it looks like the center of Florence is going directly over the KLTX radar site at the moment.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby mcheer23 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:05 pm

tireman4 wrote:Some of our members are Euro only....LOL..So until the Euro shows it...


EURO is showing a little hint... ;)
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Cpv17 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:51 pm

It looks like we’ll remain in an active wet pattern for the next couple weeks.

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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:57 pm

The "coldest air" remains up across Central Canada and then eventually push East and SE into the NE United States. Perhaps some 'cooler and drier' air with a light NW flow aloft, but we are still a couple or three weeks away from our climatological favored time of the first legit Fall front. The time for summer weather is quickly fading away... ;)

09142018 Week 3 to 4 Outlook WK34temp.gif

09142018 WK34prcp.gif


Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Sep 29 2018-Fri Oct 12 2018

The doldrums of the forecasting season continue in terms of predictability for the mid-latitudes at the subseasonal scale. ENSO neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation index appears weak due to competing signals of the low frequency in the Pacific and a Kelvin wave over the Americas. The mid-latitude circulation pattern in recent weeks has been fairly persistent and amplified for the time of year, with anomalous ridging over Alaska and a downstream trough over the Yukon, but there are signs of this pattern starting to break down during the next two weeks. Dynamical model guidance for Week 3-4, the evolving extended range pattern, and long-term trends are the primary guidance used to inform the present Week 3-4 outlook. Among dynamical models used in the present outlook, the ECMWF is favored given its transition from Week-2 being the least drastic.

Model guidance overall shows low amplitude anomalies, typical of the relaxed vorticity gradients during late boreal summer. The CFS breaks down the ridge over Alaska by Week-2, in disagreement with the entire CPC model suite utilized during the extended range period, with negative height anomalies across the state during both Week-3 and Week-4. The ECMWF and JMA maintain this feature, as do most of the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) models. The resulting downstream impacts are felt in the CFS, with amplified ridging along the Canadian border for Weeks 3-4, while the ECMWF appears to have a better handle with anomalous troughing extending from the Canadian prairies through Hudson Bay. The JMA model favors generally positive height anomalies across the CONUS, potentially tied to the model overplaying decadal trends. Both the ECMWF and JMA maintain anomalous ridging off the Eastern Seaboard in Week 3-4, along with much of the SubX guidance.

The favored pattern in line with the ECMWF solution would support a mean frontal zone extending from the Midwest through New England, with surface high pressure over much of the West and along the eastern seaboard. Given that pattern, the ECMWF anticipates substantial chances of below-normal temperatures from the Northern Plains through the Northeast, which may be overdone given the difficulties observed in recent weeks for cold air built up over Canada to push south into the CONUS. Similarly, the positive height anomalies from the JMA and discounted CFS are at odds with potential cold along the northern tier, resulting in a forecast of equal chances in the outlook. More consistency exists among forecasts for above-normal temperatures over the West and Southeast, given the positive height anomalies favored for these regions. Above-normal temperatures are also favored in Alaska, with southerly flow anticipated for much of the mainland, while well above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Bering Sea may help to offset anomalous northerly flow across the Aleutians. Model guidance is consistent in indicating an increase in below-normal temperature chances across portions of the Southern Plains, tied to either increased precipitation or the mean front being east of the region, depending on the model.

Forecast ridging across the West Coast supports increased chances of anomalously dry conditions for many areas from the Plains westward. The exception to this is across Arizona, where above-median precipitation odds are increased due to model signals of a surge of moisture into the state from the Gulf of California associated with tropical cyclone activity off of the Baja Peninsula. The enhanced subtropical ridge forecast by model guidance also leads to increased above-median rainfall chances for much of the East, tied to amplified transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, as has been observed in recent weeks. This area was extended slightly westward from what models indicated due to the forecast weakness in the model height fields across the central CONUS, suggesting any potential tropical cyclone activity could be focused towards the western or central Gulf of Mexico coastline. With anomalous ridging favored over the Western CONUS, the storm track appears likely to shift northward into southern Alaska, yielding increased odds of above-median precipitation for portions of the Aleutians, Kenai Peninsula vicinity, and Alaska Panhandle.

Persistent positive SST anomalies continue to surround Hawaii, supporting increased chances of above-normal temperatures and precipitation across the island chain. Dynamical model guidance is similarly unanimous in the increased chances of above-normal temperatures and above-median rainfall for the island chain.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:26 pm

tireman4 wrote:Some of our members are Euro only....LOL..So until the Euro shows it...


Damn Skippy...LOL
So happy the SUN has peaked out for a bit
Total of 8 inches of rain & I'm over it.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Drier WX Returns

Postby CrashTestDummy » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:22 am

Almost 6” here in Northern Brazoria county. Our ‘water dog’ standard poodle has been LOVING it.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Drier WX Returns

Postby Cromagnum » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:25 pm

Looks like Isaac is dead. Any thoughts on whether his ghost springs to life once it gets out of the Caribbean?
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Drier WX Returns

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:02 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Looks like Isaac is dead. Any thoughts on whether his ghost springs to life once it gets out of the Caribbean?


Never say never...it could pop up in the GOM....some models are sniffing
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Drier WX Returns

Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:07 pm

Here in Wharton we’ve received 12” in the past 18 days.
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