SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:37 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Bands of heavy rainfall are progressing inland across the mid and upper TX coast this morning in association with the disorganized area of low pressure over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico.

Generally rainbands have been moving on the order of 15-20mph which has limited overall rates to 1-2 inches along the coast with lesser amounts north of I-10. There was some minor street flooding earlier this morning in portions of Galveston County, but nothing more significant than that thus far.

Expect the greatest rainfall today to be focused along and SW of a line from College Station to Houston to High Islands where moisture is highest and this area will also feature the most likely location for any sustained banding trends. Overall rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals up to 5 inches. Since early September has been extremely wet (Galveston has recorded 16.47 inches making it the 4th September on record) the grounds along the coast are saturated and additional rainfall will lead to run-off and potentially some flooding…hence a flash flood watch is in effect until noon today generally along and SE of US 59.

Tropical wave over the western Gulf will move inland and WNW toward SW TX on Saturday while high pressure attempts to build toward the area from the NE and the far western influences of Florence begin to help draw drier air into the region. Can’t rule out a few banding features before midday on Saturday especially around Matagorda Bay, but think the weather will begin to transition back toward a more typical summer pattern of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms that diminish by late afternoon and early evening. This pattern will continue into next week.

Isaac:
There really is not much left of this feature over the eastern Caribbean this morning. Upper level wind shear has taken a heavy toll on the system with the surface center having been void of deep convection for most of yesterday. The surface center is spinning down without thunderstorms to help maintain the vorticity and it is very possible that the tropical depression is no longer a closed low and has opened into a tropical wave. The depression continues to move toward the west in the deep steering flow of the easterly trade winds and this motion will continue which will bring Isaac to the western Caribbean Sea by early next week. Some global models have shown Isaac attempting to redevelop and turning NW toward the Gulf of Mexico next week…but the more reliable GFS and ECMWF latest runs show little to no development and maintain Isaac as a tropical wave.

Something to keep an eye on at this time, but nothing to be overly concerned about.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:43 am

The rain can stop now. I get 7 Saturdays in the fall to host people at the tailgate. It's putting a damper on this Saturday.

Give me some NW flow and Sunshine from Wednesday to Saturday every week.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:10 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:The rain can stop now. I get 7 Saturdays in the fall to host people at the tailgate. It's putting a damper on this Saturday.

Give me some NW flow and Sunshine from Wednesday to Saturday every week.


Where's that 10 year drought pattern when you need it?!


(I guess the long-term drought is officially over?)
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby don » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:50 am

Looks like the system is trying to become a depression before landfall, it probably won't be classified though due to lack of a windfield and proximity to land. We really need to watch the radar today to make sure training doesn't set up...
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:08 am

7.4 inches of rain since Monday
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby don » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:32 am

Image

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0835
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...TX Coast & Vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141328Z - 141858Z

Summary...A tropical disturbance is poised to make its TX
landfall. Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" are
expected over the next several hours.

Discussion...Radar imagery and polar orbiting satellite estimates
show a broad area of rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms
which should soon make a TX landfall. This is in association with
a tropical disturbance that the National Hurricane Center has been
monitoring for some time. Precipitable water values are 2.3-2.6"
per recent GPS data, exceedingly high for any time of the year.
Inflow at 850 hPa is cyclonic at 25-30 knots per VAD wind
profiles, which combined with surface observations indicate a low
level center/1008 hPa low pressure system somewhat east-southeast
of Rockport TX. There is no CIN per SPC mesoanalyses due to the
high degree of moisture. ML CAPE values of 1000-2500 J/kg lurk
near and just offshore the coast.

The expectation is for this low/inverted trough to move ashore in
2-3 hours, which should lead to and increase in rain rates/totals
from there on out, as instability from the warm Gulf of Mexico is
ushered in within the wake of the tropical disturbance. The
mesoscale guidance is not unified in its messaging, though
seemingly low in convective coverage, showing a scattershot signal
for local amounts in the 3-4" range through 19z. Hourly rain
totals to 2" are expected, though cell mergers and long enough
bouts of training could exceed this number. The expectation is
that the rainfall would lead to an instability gradient remaining
near the coast during the MPD period as skies are cloudy farther
inland. Considering the wet conditions across the region during
the past couple weeks depressing flash flood guidance, heavy rain
issues are expected, particularly within urban areas.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:52 am

For those that follow one of our own members Hurricane Josh or iCyclone, Josh is about to feel the wrath of Super Typhoon Mangkhut at the Northern tip of Luzon.

Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone · 43m43 minutes ago
12 midnight. Road blocked by wreckage, had to turn around. Final location: Pattao Market in Buguey (blue dot). I feel good about this location—splits difference between N & S solutions. Too dangerous to be out any longer. CHASE OVER. Come what may. Super #Typhoon #MANGKHUT

09142018 iCylone MANGHUT DnERb7IU0AALMF3.jpg


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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby mcheer23 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:02 pm

GFS and CMC want to bring a cold front through here ..next weekend.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:20 pm

mcheer23 wrote:GFS and CMC want to bring a cold front through here ..next weekend.


Bring it
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby tireman4 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:29 pm

Some of our members are Euro only....LOL..So until the Euro shows it...
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