MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

[ticka1]

Looking forward to seeing what the forecast shows for May? Actually enjoying these milder/cooler temps.

[jojotheidiotclown]

God, I hope not. I thrive in the warmth. Love summer. If I wanted mild or cold temps I would live up north as a Yankee.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlook that takes is into early/mid May suggests a deep Central/East Coast trough with equal chances of normal precipitation.

[DoctorMu]

Looking forward to seeing what the forecast shows for May? Actually enjoying these milder/cooler temps.

Ideal for my sprinkler and A/C unit. It's 67°F and we had 0.8 in of rain tonight. I'd take this all year round.

Our utility bills for July and August are ridiculous. 100°F, high humidity, but not much rain. We have no choice but to water during summers. The deep well aquifer water is high in sodium, so the water is alkaline...and that means extra iron for plants and grass. Gardenias and azaleas? Fuhgettaboutit. Landscaping in Texas is not for the weak of heart.

[srainhoutx]

I wanted to briefly point out some signal developing in the medium/long range ensemble guidance suggesting a prolonged SE fetch off the Gulf begin this coming Sunday and extends throughout next work week. A vigorous deep trough appears to dig into the 4 Corners Region with the potential for a very robust cyclogensis (strong surface storm system) across the Panhandle/Southern Rockies late next work week. This typically spell severe weather threat in early May, so we will need to monitor trends into early next week.

[srainhoutx]

May looks to begin with an active weather pattern that could persist into the first full week or two of the month. Mid to late next week appear the most active as severe weather season in the Plains becomes active with a trough to the West and a Ridge to the East setting the stage for prolonged NW Gulf moisture to stream inland into the Plains and very strong dynamics. The Storm Prediction Center has Outlined a rather high 30% Chance of all modes of severe weather at Day 6 across potions of the Central/Southern Plains. As a cold front advances across Texas a week from today, strong to severe storms will some potential for heavy rainfall enters the forecast. Some of the guidance stalls that front near the Coast keeping generally unsettled weather around well into the following work week, but that's much to far out into the future to consider anywhere close to accurate. We will monitor next weeks data very closely and fine tune the sensible weather expected as we get a bit closer. Stay Tuned!

[unome]

I hope we get more rain, I hate watering

chance of snow in the Rockies, per their tweet - I won't complain if we stay cooler a while, 90+ will get here soon enough !

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/990640775678562305

[srainhoutx]

Active Weather Week as we turn the Calendar to May. The first Spring Season Severe Weather Event looks to unfold across portions of the Southern/Central Plains through Thursday as a vigorous Western Trough with embedded disturbances eject out of the 4 Corners into the Plains. Deep long fetch NW Gulf Moisture with become established today and increase as the week wears on. Locally, a SW flow aloft should keep rain/storm chances to a minimum other than some light beneath the capping inversion streamer showers unto Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the Hill Country and perhaps increases our rain chances slightly before the front clears the Coast on Saturday. The good news is that areas of Texas that are in severe drought conditions may be the benefactors of the heaviest rainfall this week, so that bodes well for those areas to replenish their lakes/reservoirs. Our SE Texas Lakes/Reservoirs are in fine shape with water levels across the Region near 90+% of capacity.

Keep an eye on our Hurricane Central section this week as we are monitoring the potential of some form of tropical/extra tropical mischief attempting to organize next week near the Bahamas. All of the Major Global Models are "sniffing" this potential that appears to pose absolutely no threat to the Gulf or Texas. Tis that time of year when attentions turns to the Tropics and serves as a reminder to replenish your Hurricane Supplies and update your Plan of Action...

[jasons]

From the PM AFD:

GFS and even the ECMWF keep higher QPF
amounts over central Texas so tried to keep higher PoPs to the NW
of the Houston area in the Friday/Saturday time frame.

The area will either be capped by the elevated
mixed layer for the next few days or instability will be limited
for the end of the week when the front becomes active. While there
is higher moisture, we are not really seeing any signals for
heavy rainfall but something to keep tabs on going forward.

[djmike]

FYI! Fun exciting event coming up here in Beaumont you guys may wanna make a small trip for!
***Only 8 days away!***
Come see the NOAA hurricane hunters at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Nederland on May 8th. Tour two of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, speak with the pilots, and walk through vendor exhibits from various local agencies and organizations. The event is FREE and the public is invited to attend from 2 pm to 5 pm!
https://www.weather.gov/lch/hat y