December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby harp » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:46 am

Can you let this Louisiana boy know how far east it spreads? Thank you.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:12 pm

harp wrote:Can you let this Louisiana boy know how far east it spreads? Thank you.



If the 12Z GFS is correct, you SE Louisiana folks may see freezing temperatures (near hard freeze criteria) just West of New Orleans and along and N of the I-10 Corridor on the 27th and 28th. Blake and I were just discussing how long a duration the 12Z GFS suggests the cold air stick around. If the GFS is correct the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere will be situated over most of North America.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby harp » Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:19 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
harp wrote:Can you let this Louisiana boy know how far east it spreads? Thank you.



If the 12Z GFS is correct, you SE Louisiana folks may see freezing temperatures (near hard freeze criteria) just West of New Orleans and along and N of the I-10 Corridor on the 27th and 28th. Blake and I were just discussing how long a duration the 12Z GFS suggests the cold air stick around. If the GFS is correct the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere will be situated over most of North America.


Thank you so much for the response. My next question would be will this be dry, or do we have any ice issues?
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby snowman65 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:54 pm

Are there chances that the frozen stuff could still work its way further south to golden triangle?
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby stormlover » Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:58 pm

We will know by wed, right now looks like cold rain ☔️
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby KHOU BLake » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:08 pm

12z Euro is in and I don't see too many differences right off the bat. I do see it's pretty cold the day after Christmas but still only showing highs in the mid 40s the days before and on Christmas. Nothing that is Earth shattering. It keeps all precip liquid as well.

12z GFS is comparable to the Euro in showing highs in the mid Saturday, Sunday and Christmas Day. It does bring the rain/ice/snow line fairly close to College Station but that's about it. All rain here locally.

Model watching continues.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:43 pm

Depending on the next few model runs, the story that could emerge would be how cold it’s going to get on Christmas and after moreso than a Winter Storm. If the EPS verified, we would go into the deep freeze as our source region would shift to the brutally cold Central Canadian plains.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby Heat Miser » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:58 pm

redneckweather wrote:So no '83 or '89 type cold? This was probably the 50th time it has been mentioned in the last 10 years and once again, not going to happen, not even close actually. Kind of silly for that to be mentioned every single time an Arctic front shows up in the models 2 weeks out. lol I'm hoping it stays all rain! This airmass will not be deep enough to produce snow so keep the ice away.

Winner, winner chicken dinner. You read these forums long enough and inevitably, almost every winter, there's talk of 83 coming our way. People who hope for 83 are somewhat silly to me. As was mentioned before, some in the Houston area are still living in tents. 83 was as miserable as it gets. In fact think of the flooding from Harvey only this time it comes from within your house. I can think of no reason, none, to wish for or hope for that type of cold to come our way. We don't need nor want it. And, in the unlikely event we get an ice storm, who in the world would want that nightmare? There will be hundreds of vehicle accidents, power lines down, killed vegetation, just not good at all.
Hey, an interesting and rare snow fall, bring it. Pipe busting cold or dangerous ice, stay away.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:13 pm

After Christmas record approaching cold is in the Hill Country on multiple models. Hard freeze in College Station, possibly Houston. It's not unusual for a potent arctic front to appear in our region just after Christmas.

Right now the coldest air is timed after the cold front pushes through. Ice storm in the Hill Country still possible. Cold rain for SE Texas...still a LONG way to go before higher confidence.
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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Postby KHOU BLake » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:21 pm

From HGX's AFD:

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION /THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS/...
Speculation continues about the forecast for the weekend before
Christmas. CIPS Extended Analogs have shown a consistent signal
for sub-freezing temperatures to reach at least parts of Southeast
Texas sometime during the December 24 through December 26
timeframe... and this increases confidence that the region will
see a spell of much below normal temperatures around Christmas.
What remains more uncertain though is when this cold air will
actually reach the region. This airmass looks to originate over
western/northwestern Canada before being dislodged southward
towards the Great Plains as a disturbance now near the Bering
Strait also dives south. These polar airmasses tend to be very
shallow by the time they reach Texas, which means that model
guidance can struggle with when the coldest temperatures arrive
behind the initial cold front. This is because the airmass behind
the front moves moreso from propagation due to density differences
at the surface than forcing from higher up in the atmosphere. The
medium range guidance that was inspected today continues to shows
signs of that struggle with the deterministic GFS/European not
bringing in sub-freezing surface temperatures until Christmas and
the Canadian, well, doesn`t bring them into the region at all.

This is further compounded by the signal that at least a weak
over-running regime sets up across the region behind the front.
This over-running, where more warm, moist air is lifted over the
colder, shallow post-frontal air, looks to produce periods of
light to moderate precipitation across the region over the weekend
before Christmas and into Christmas week. Not only is the timing
for arrival of colder temperatures in question, but whether or not
the atmosphere will be precipitating when they arrive is too.

So what do we know?
- It will be colder than normal the weekend before Christmas into
the beginning of next week.
- Winter weather could certainly be possible... but several
things have to come together for that to be the case.
- It is too early to determine impacts, if any.
- Model guidance is still in poor agreement on what will actually
happen in that portion of the forecast. This makes forecast
confidence low.
- Forecast confidence probably won`t begin to increase until the
middle of next week when the disturbance near Alaska begins to
dislodge our next round of colder air.
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