August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Mostly Hot & Dry

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:59 am

While the Tropics have quieted down for the time being, there are indications that the Hemispheric Pattern could become very favorable for Tropical Development in about a week to 10 days. We are likely to see a big increase in tropical wave activity developing across Africa as the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that assisted Franklin to form shifts over Africa and the Indian Ocean. The Madden Julian Oscillation appears to strengthen across the Indian Ocean increasing odds in the Atlantic Basin for the possibilities of Tropical Troubles to organize.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 23m23 minutes ago
When the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean (Blue shading), there's a 4x more likelihood for Hurricanes over the Atlantic Basin

08112017 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png


NOAA has increased to their numbers for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in their latest Update as of August 9th:


UPDATED: August 9, 2017. Audio from today's media call is posted to the "Resources" section below.
August 9, 2017 —
08112017 PHOTO-Hurricane%20Franklin-NOAA-900x534-Landscape.jpg


Today NOAA issued the scheduled update for its 2017 hurricane season outlook. Forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season, and they increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.

Forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season (compared to the May prediction of 45 percent chance), with 14-19 named storms (increased from the May predicted range of 11-17) and 2-5 major hurricanes (increased from the May predicted range of 2-4). A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the intial May outlook.
08112017 CPC Hurricanes 4673.png

“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

Bell noted other factors that point to an above-normal season include warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic than models previously predicted and higher predicted activity from available models.

In just the first nine weeks of this season there have been six named storms, which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August. An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-November 30, produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
08112017 CPC Named Storms 4669.png


“Today’s updated outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan.”

The updated outlook is based on the current and evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the most recent model predictions, and pre-and early-season storm activity. The numbers announced today include the season activity to-date. The Atlantic basin has seen six named storms (Arlene in April; Bret and Cindy in June; Don and Emily in July; and Franklin in August). Two of these storms, Cindy and Emily, struck the United States. Cindy made landfall on June 22 at the Louisiana-Texas border and caused heavy rain, inland flooding and multiple tornado outbreaks. Emily made landfall on July 31 in Anna Maria Island, Florida. Franklin is predicted to make landfall in Mexico overnight as a hurricane.

Today’s update also decreases the chance of a near-normal season from 35 percent to 30 percent, and a below-normal season from 20 percent to only 10 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts.


06272017 PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16937
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Mostly Hot & Dry

Postby djmike » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:39 pm

Just had a coworker collapse of heat exhaustion. Please please take precautions when working outside for any given amount of time. It only takes minutes for heat exhaustion to happen. This person was even acclimated to this type of weather. Just go to show that it could be anyone. Thankfully he is ok now but will remain in the hospital overnight. Drink plenty of WATER! Stay in the shade as much as possible. Extreme heat advisory for all of southeast Texas. Heat index here in bmt is currently 112. Heat can kill! Stay safe everyone! Cheers!
djmike
 
Posts: 549
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Mostly Hot & Dry

Postby mckinne63 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:54 pm

Hearing thunder here in Stafford. Front of the house looks darkish, back of the house is just cloudy. Dang just saw a big lightning bolt on the back side of the house. It is getting a bit windy also. Very loud thunder.
mckinne63
 
Posts: 378
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Mostly Hot & Dry

Postby djjordan » Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:38 pm

That storm split right over my neighborhood. One went west.... the other went ENE ...and all I got was Thunder and not a drop. Truly the Dog Days of Summer are upon us.
User avatar
djjordan
 
Posts: 911
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:19 pm
Location: Sugar Land/First Colony

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Mostly Hot & Dry

Postby mckinne63 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:56 pm

djjordan wrote:That storm split right over my neighborhood. One went west.... the other went ENE ...and all I got was Thunder and not a drop. Truly the Dog Days of Summer are upon us.


All that noise and a lovely breeze and NOT A DROP of rain. Sigh...
mckinne63
 
Posts: 378
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Mostly Hot & Dry

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:48 am

Heat Advisories continue today, so stay hydrated. The sensible weather forecast for the week ahead looks a bit murky due to some rather significant differences between the hot and dry GFS solutions versus lowering heights and a couple of weak disturbance traveling West beneath the Upper Ridge across Sputh Texas suggested by the ECMWF solutions. The European model has been performing more closely to reality day to day, so will give its solutions a bit more favorability. Isolated sea/ bay breeze showers and storms may begin to increase throughout the coming week.

In the Tropics, Tropical Depression 8 has formed East of the Bahamas and could become TS Gert passing well offshore of the United States East Coast. With that said there are growing indications that tropical activity may increase over the next week to 10 days. The overnight ECMWF suggests at least 3 potential Tropical Troublemakers on the long range charts.
f240.gif


Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago
Eyes now turn to the Atlantic's Main Development Region for our next developing tropical cyclone; Models favor a track towards the GoMEX

08132017 00Z Mike Ventrice DHGz0XVU0AEq_r-.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16937
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Eye On The Tropics

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:14 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical Storm Gert has formed off the east coast of the US and is forecast to become a hurricane while remaining east of the US coast.

91L:
A series of tropical waves have moved off the western coast of Africa extending several hundred miles westward over the Atlantic Ocean. Organization of these waves continues and conditions look favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. It is unclear at the moment which wave may become the dominant system which will likely have implications for track forecasts down the road.

Local:
Area continues to be normally hot for mid August. The past few days have featured a struggle for low level dewpoints to mix out which helped support 107-111 heat index values on Friday and Saturday. Dewpoints mixed out better on Sunday and values maxed out in the 105-107 range. Ridge axis nearby is shifting slightly today and 850mb temperatures has cooled a degree or two, so not expecting widespread 108 heat index readings…hence no advisory.

Yet another rare August frontal boundary has sunk into NE TX overnight along with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Position of jet stream disturbances just north of the region may help to force a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again Tuesday especially as a pool of deeper moisture over the Gulf moves into the area on Tuesday. Wednesday will likely feature the best rain chances of the week (30-40%) with the upper ridge backing off the area slightly cooling mid level temperatures. Will likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Ridging builds back over the area Thursday-next week, but is not overly strong so expect to see a continue slightly chance of daily thunderstorms and temperature near normal.
Attachments
08142017 8 AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16937
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Eye On The Tropics

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:29 am

We'll need to monitor the progression of 91L and it makes the trip across the Atlantic over the next 5 to 7 days. We are nearing "Prime Time" in the North Atlantic Basin for Tropical Development according to Climatology and it is also noteworthy that the Hemispheric Pattern Indicators have coincided with the burst of tropical waves marching across Africa and into the Eastern Atlantic Waters. MIMIC clearly shows a wave break associated with the very large area of disturbed weather over the Eastern and Central Atlantic suggesting development may well be delayed before the broad area of disturbed weather can coalesce somewhere near or just beyond 50W.

08142017 1215Z avn-l.jpg

Image

The Hour 72 NWS/NHC Forecast suggests the board and large Azores/Bermuda Ridge will dominate the steering flow across the Deep Tropics with the Easterly Trade Winds moving 91L generally West around 15 MPH.

08142017 NWS NHC Surface Charts 0531Z atlsfc72_latestBW.gif


Saharan Air Layer is a bit dusty with the lead tropical wave, but is less of an issue where 91L is currently positioned S of the Cabo Verde Islands.

08142017 12Z SAL splitEW.jpg


The overnight Ensemble Guidance does suggest TC Genesis may be possible in the 48 to 72 hour time frame and the individual 51 members of the ECMWF Ensembles do suggest a potential threat to the Caribbean Islands by this weekend. Beyond that, there will be a lot of speculation about the future track. While it is possible that a potential threat to the United States Mainland could occur. It is far too soon to know with any certainty where this disturbance make go, particularly before we actually have a Storm to track.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16937
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Eye On The Tropics

Postby BlueJay » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:34 am

91L go away. It seems to be on track to interfere with the total solar eclipse. I hope not.
BlueJay
 
Posts: 651
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas

Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Eye On The Tropics

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:35 am

Interesting to see a 10 degree shift further West with the 12Z Best Track. The Statistical Guidance for 91L may begin to trend more Westward in time. The Dynamical Guidance (ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian) probably will not change that much in the near term.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16937
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

PreviousNext

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron