UPDATE: The KHOU 11 Weather Forum will remain online until at least the end of November.

Search found 2584 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in thes...
by wxman57
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Wxman57, will this potentially extend into Louisiana? I lived in Oklahoma for 8 years in my youth and I remember ice storms. Believe me, people, you do NOT want an ice storm! It's possible that there could be freezing rain in south Louisiana and SE TX (I assume that's what you mean by "Louisia...
by wxman57
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:32 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

This potential winter weather event looks more terrifying than exciting. Going weeks without power and unable to travel anywhere doesn't sound like fun, to me. What's most troubling is that every GFS run indicates a significant warm nose aloft and only a very shallow surface freezing layer. That mea...
by wxman57
Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:32 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

12z makes it 19 in a row showing an arctic front late next week. Comes in much faster too. Arrives Friday morning with a storm arriving at the same time. However, the 12Z GFS doesn't drop temps below freezing in Houston with the front. Upper 30s to low 50s for temps next weekend through Christmas, ...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:00 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

The American model (GFS) has been predicting another cold outbreak for around the 24th, possibly with sub-freezing air at the surface along with precipitation. However, the GFS shows well above freezing temps just above the surface, which would indicate sleet/freezing rain vs. snow. Keep in mind tha...
by wxman57
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:27 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Went to bed at 1am and the snow was light. Got up a few times between 1 and 7am but didn't see much outside. Looked out at 7am to the images below. First picture is a panorama. http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Pano.JPG http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Front.JPG http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Back.JPG
by wxman57
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:48 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Looks like the 18Z NAM is swinging some stronger vorticity thru the area around Midnight which I'm guessing is related to the uptick in intensity we are seeing on this run. Yes, that's the main upper-level disturbance rotating across our area. With even colder air aloft, it's a perfect setup for sn...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

The 18Z U of H sounding was sent to the Houston/Galveston NWS office. I've been in contact with Dan Reilly over there. It does look like the rain will change to snow tonight. The 18Z NAM snow totals map (below) is impressive, but I suspect it isn't taking into consideration the warm ground and the m...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

This is a reference page for the Skew T that was posted. That's right. The balloon confirmed that the atmospheric profile matched the left image (snow). As I posted elsewhere: Sleet occurs when precipitation encounters an above-freezing layer on its way down, followed by a layer of sub-freezing air...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Just had a look at the 18Z sounding from U of H. Freezing level is at about 2500 ft (768m). Entire precip column is sub-freezing, as the models were predicting. No warm nose. Will have a skew-T shortly. This doesn't mean we'll awaken to a winter wonderland across Houston, just that we have a good ch...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
Replies: 692
Views: 93039
PreviousNext

Return to advanced search

cron