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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Remember, the models are going to be drunk for the next few days... Just expect bad rain and potential wind. Anything else is pure guessing... even with the flights feeding computer models with data, beyond thinking it'll move into the Coastal Bend, there's no way to forecast a loop-the-loop scenari...
by brooksgarner
Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

00z NAM simulated radar at 7am Friday morning. Little value, just interesting intensity forecast.
by brooksgarner
Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:33 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

Thanks! (I got to ride on that jet a number of years ago... "Gonzo", and was impressed at the vast instrumentation in that thing. Hard-edge computer racks and lots of science!) It flies high and fast.
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

srainhoutx wrote:
brooksgarner wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:NOAA G-IV will depart Tampa shortly. Here are their drop points all around the Gulf for the Mission.


Thanks Jeff!


Uh...this is Steve... ;)


Multi-tasking! Sorry, Mr. Ayers! -BG
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

NOAA G-IV will depart Tampa shortly. Here are their drop points all around the Gulf for the Mission. Thanks Steve! Looks like NOAA-49 - Gonzo! - departs this evening around 00z I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 23/0000Z...
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

No center of circulation/closed-low, so no center to initialized model forecasts on. GOES-16 vis loop suggests it's centered over the northwest Yucatan Peninsula, south of Merida, Mexico... But it could easily re-center north of the Peninsula, or the TUTT low could inhibit development with wind shea...
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream medi...
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:34 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream medi...
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:59 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

Good morning. I posted on blurb on my Facebook page. http://brooksgarner.com
by brooksgarner
Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:37 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

We are monitoring the flooding threat late this week for south/central Texas as the remnant tropical wave of Harvey is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone... As of today (Monday 8/21/17) EURO and GFS ensembles point to a south Texas solution as of latest runs, but that could change. For Ho...
by brooksgarner
Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35064
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