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Re: June 2017: TS Cindy/Tropical Storm Warning Issued

Exactly. It's going WNW around 290° ... not NW @ 310°, as the 1pm CDT NHC advisory stated. ... If it does this for another few hours, it'd bring that rain closer to Houston with each passing moment. A stripe of 5"-8"+ could fall (currently) from the City-Region near Beaumont to Polk County...
by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 670
Views: 42089

Re: June 2017: TS Cindy/Tropical Storm Warning Issued

Just a sober reminder that nothing is written in stone with the tropics: one model gives Houston 0.1" while others 6"-8"+. This model depicted (NAM) isn't always dependable -- actually is rarely great -- but it can indicate trends. We may get hit with some real soakers, or we dodge a ...
by brooksgarner
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:55 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 670
Views: 42089

Re: June 2017: ALT PTC #3 / Gulf Of Mexico Threat

FYI, so you guys watching KHOU 11 know what we are doing: Considering this is a significant threat to whoever gets hit by that rain (us included, potentially), we are simply relaying advisories and tracks from the NHC. We will not be speculating on-air about model A or model B, or what-ifs... It's t...
by brooksgarner
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 670
Views: 42089

Re: June 2017: Tracking INVEST 93L / Gulf Of Mexico Threat

As Steve posted, here's the EURO ensemble suite, courtesy WxBell and Ryan Maue via Twitter.

This would be a VERY wet scenario for southeast Texas and cause for concern Thursday/Friday. Fascinating to see the multiple vorts spinning Fujiwara-style around themselves in a common core.
by brooksgarner
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 670
Views: 42089

Re: June 2017: Tracking INVEST 93L / Gulf Of Mexico Threat

That GOES-16 imagery is fascinating. Hopefully the 403rd wing can find some good data for us to track this thing.
https://twitter.com/403PA

Watching those westward tracking vorts north of the Yucatan raises my eyebrow.

Happy tracking,
BG
by brooksgarner
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 670
Views: 42089

Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Hi Guys! Looks like more isolated to brief scattered activity this evening -- around commute time -- along sea breeze boundary. As for bigger rain chances, an storm complex could develop to our west and push through the area. HRRR advertises a passage to our north, but since this is all mesoscale dr...
by brooksgarner
Wed May 31, 2017 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook
Replies: 238
Views: 19292

Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

What's up, guys? Happy Sunday night. Just dropping in to see what's going on in the forum. The rain is all mesoscale driven. So tough to try to tell people that we can't predict the timing/amount/location exactly. "But, it's tomorrow's forecast! You can't predict 1 stinkin' day into the future?...
by brooksgarner
Sun May 28, 2017 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook
Replies: 238
Views: 19292

Re: April 2017 - Quiet Easter Weekend Outlook

I can't speak for the National Weather Service's zone forecasts... I mean our KHOU 11 news forecast.
by brooksgarner
Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend
Replies: 275
Views: 21955

Re: April 2017 - Quiet Easter Weekend Outlook

... it was a 20% chance yesterday. ;) Of course, for Pearland it was ultimately a 100% chance, but per the Houston viewing area and our official forecast to cover the region, we only saw about 20%-30% coverage. :D Agree though: my yard can't take another inch. We had 4.2" in the last 2 days. :s...
by brooksgarner
Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend
Replies: 275
Views: 21955

Re: February 2017- Warm With Storms Possible Late Sunday/Mon

Looks like we escaped any sort of big flooding. Seems like models were right-on with guidance from last Friday with a progressive solution and a non-training vertical wind-field setup. Isolated severe storms in San Antonio with that weak estimated EFO-EF1 tornado made for a rough day there... Now, l...
by brooksgarner
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:42 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns
Replies: 206
Views: 25830
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