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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

I’m probably preaching to the choir, but ... ‪a reminder to those who don’t know: It is scientifically impossible to make a 100% accurate/specific forecast for acute flooding. On a day like this you may see 1” or you could see 10+”. That’s wet roads vs inundated. Chaos theory still rules tropical fo...
by brooksgarner
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:29 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today To me, it looks like we will have more rain than expected. At this point, a bust seems very unlikely unless your benchmark was 6 inches of rain. When models are calling for a foot of rain, anything less than a few inc...
by brooksgarner
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today No, today was not a bust. We could never commit to specifics due to the inherent uncertainty of tropical forecasting. It downpoured periodically almost exactly as forecast. The the heaviest banding rain may happen Mon...
by brooksgarner
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Stating the obvious, but the next 12hrs will be telling.
by brooksgarner
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

So I'm confused I just washed Blake Matthews live on Facebook and he was saying that blob down there wasnt impressive he assured us of that....now we have Brookes saying things could get interesting.. so what do we believe? I’m not making a forecast assurtion in these posts — only suggesting trends...
by brooksgarner
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:20 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

I agree that the satellite presentation this morning is impressive and honestly a little bit eyebrow raising… I suspect if this convection persists through 2 PM Eastern time ( assuming it’s not purely nocturnal convection ), we will see at least a 40% hatch area in the NHC update. Of course, doing t...
by brooksgarner
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:44 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

How many inches? Got your attention. If consensus models (averaged separate models) like ICON (see tropicaltidbits.com) are even remotely accurate, the rainfall timing will change by 24hrs delay (M-T instead of S-M) plus totals would go up significantly. Will be interesting to track training potenti...
by brooksgarner
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:04 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Hey y'all, just checkin' in. All possibilities on the table. 12z GFS closes off weak low near Brownsville. Even a tiny close-off of pressures could focus rain bands, near wherever that center approaches shore. Low level jet comes into play, and more... So many options still on the table... this is o...
by brooksgarner
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 420
Views: 31247

Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

Severe storm warning issued for quarter sized hail.
by brooksgarner
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal
Replies: 257
Views: 16776

Re: April 2018- Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday

TEGNA WX Earth Design.png How about that gravity wave set traversing Texas from north to south?? Interesting to see on GOES 16 WV in its interaction with the shortwave coming out of Mexico at this time! (That shortwave I think may be a little punchier than models had indicated for much of the day. ...
by brooksgarner
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal
Replies: 257
Views: 16776
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