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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

On this last day of heavy rain event ... Ball park future precip estimates range from 1"-3" where storms set up this morning along and south of 59, and most impactful rain ends before evening commute. NWS says last time Bush IAH airport saw greater than 1" of rain for four consecutive...
by brooksgarner
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:06 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Checking the gauges on harris county flood control, the highest rainfall we've spotted in this band is about 2" per hour.... cold pooling behind this line MAY push it through, sparing us... Hoping the westward progression of that low doesn't effectively stop forward motion of this line.
by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Any chance this band coming in from the west slows down and trains like it did in Beaumont or Corpus area? Or will this move through by this evening? I guess that is a tough question lol.. This has been pretty difficult to forecast by the NWS I imagine. Yes. That's what we're worried about... that ...
by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

The HRRR shows a possible focus of rain coming closer to our region over next 18hrs.... Not to say that this would cause flooding, but it would cause rain.
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by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

The threat for Houston metro will be enhanced by any outflow boundaries which result from this energy cruising up through Wharton and Colorado Counties after Matagorda... Thanks for posting!
by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

mcd0336.gif MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0336 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1215 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 201615Z - 202115Z SUMMARY...TRAINING BAND AND SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG TROUGH AXI...
by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:52 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Remember what Dr. Frank always preaches, " Until a tropical system is completely gone, you always have to have your guard up" . We still have a warm moist atmosphere, low convective temperatures and onshore flow. HGX still has a 70 percent of heavy rain today.. That's very good advice -- ...
by brooksgarner
Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:51 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

I’m probably preaching to the choir, but ... ‪a reminder to those who don’t know: It is scientifically impossible to make a 100% accurate/specific forecast for acute flooding. On a day like this you may see 1” or you could see 10+”. That’s wet roads vs inundated. Chaos theory still rules tropical fo...
by brooksgarner
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:29 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today To me, it looks like we will have more rain than expected. At this point, a bust seems very unlikely unless your benchmark was 6 inches of rain. When models are calling for a foot of rain, anything less than a few inc...
by brooksgarner
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today No, today was not a bust. We could never commit to specifics due to the inherent uncertainty of tropical forecasting. It downpoured periodically almost exactly as forecast. The the heaviest banding rain may happen Mon...
by brooksgarner
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday
Replies: 677
Views: 44920
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