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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

tireman4 wrote:Some of our members are Euro only....LOL..So until the Euro shows it...


EURO is showing a little hint... ;)
by mcheer23
Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

GFS and CMC want to bring a cold front through here ..next weekend.
by mcheer23
Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

00Z EURO brought Issac into far SW Louisiana 12z EURO brought Issac into SW Louisiana..but weaker...... FWIW..CMC takes Issac into the TX/MX border.... ICON moves Issac into the Gulf moving NW near the Louisiana coast as a 969mb Hurricane.... JMA 1003 mb storm moving into the NW gulf. GFS...not much...
by mcheer23
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

We have to be careful with the forecasted precip because if this system remains sheared and relatively disorganized a lot more precipitation will filter north into central and southeast Texas. WPC seems to highly reflect the ECMWF, but even with that said it seems a little conservative. As usual, a...
by mcheer23
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Cpv17 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:EURO ensembles are clustered between brownsville and corpus. Actually shifted south a little.


That’s surprising.



Once we have an actually center to track things will be more clear.
by mcheer23
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

EURO ensembles are clustered between brownsville and corpus. Actually shifted south a little.
by mcheer23
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

djmike wrote:So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area?


A Landfall between CC and Matagorda would put SETX on the dirty side.
by mcheer23
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

srainhoutx wrote:The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.

09112018 12Z 48 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_3.png

09112018 12Z 72 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png

09112018 12Z 96 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_5.png



Bit further north as well......
by mcheer23
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized . Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the Yucat...
by mcheer23
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

I think models are underestimating this tropical wave.
by mcheer23
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances Increase Late Week
Replies: 618
Views: 50674
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