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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Wha?? Im confused. So did the euro go north? Cameron area? I wouldn't worry with it too much right now. Models are still having trouble accurately forecasting the synoptic flow for Florence and how that could impact even down into the Caribbean. Once that is figured out we should begin to have a be...
by Andrew
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:15 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

We have to be careful with the forecasted precip because if this system remains sheared and relatively disorganized a lot more precipitation will filter north into central and southeast Texas. WPC seems to highly reflect the ECMWF, but even with that said it seems a little conservative. As usual, a ...
by Andrew
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8vis.html looks like its getting better organized but who knows A lot of that convection is from the TUTT. Heavily sheared as the vorticity is still well to the west and south of the convection. Going to stay that way until the TUTT moves out of the way a...
by Andrew
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

ECMWF is showing the best development right near landfall. Makes sense as other models have also been indicating that anticyclonic upper level flow could develop over the western gulf late this week. Slower it moves better chance for development.
by Andrew
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

NHC probably declared it an invest due to a little more support from the GFS. With that said still don't expect much development over the next couple days. Any development will likely occur right before landfall.
by Andrew
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Weekend/Tracking The Tropics

ECMWF and CMC want to develop a weak low. Still would like to see more support from the GFS before buying in. Either way rain chances across the Texas coastline will likely increase from it.
by Andrew
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:29 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Weekend/Tracking The Tropics

If the wave can slow down enough like the ECMWF is showing and allow the TUTT over the gulf to eject and shear to the northeast it could have a small period for slight development. Otherwise expect just increased rain chances for later this week.
by Andrew
Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Flood Watch/Tropical Storm Gordon

I don't see Gordon becoming a hurricane by landfall. The system really has not looked good since yesterday when it was over Florida. ULL plus fast motion of the storm has kept it disorganized. The upper levels are not stacked and still remain elongated. Locally, expect more of the same with chances ...
by Andrew
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:44 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Flood Watch/Tropical Storm Gordon

Pretty much got nothing today. I was worried that was going to happen. I haven't really received much rain over the last couple of weeks. Hoping tomorrow morning I get a little more as orientation of on flow shore would support that idea a little better.
by Andrew
Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Flood Watch/Tropical Storm Gordon

Definitely impressed how fast Gordon intensified. Still dealing with shear though to the southwest. Let's see if conditions become anymore favorable as it progresses to the northwest.
by Andrew
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:40 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 669
Views: 54204
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