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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

don wrote:Yes the HRRR is really aggressive today, lets hope this doesn't verify today.The Tech WRF also looks similar.


Yea that is why I didn't post the QPF because its way too aggressive, but it can be useful to see the trend and that is additional coverage for much of SE Texas.
by Andrew
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:15 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

HRRR, while it has been struggling some over the last couple runs, suggests a lot of convection will break out along the coast and over a lot of SE Texas over the next 4-5 hours. Going to have to keep an eye on any training that could setup.
by Andrew
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:20 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Not much change in my eyes from today's model runs. Maybe a little further north with the heavier rain but overall events are proceeding as expected. Still thinking widespread 3-5 with isolated 8-10 inches (especially South and West of Houston). Now, if a band starts to train, things could change ra...
by Andrew
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Interesting to note the GFS is picking up on some banding monday afternoon that would be need to be monitored. Some of the hi-res models were picking up on that too. I still believe Monday evening/night will have the highest potential of heavy rain.
by Andrew
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

I'm suspect of ICON's rapid breakdown of ridging over the southeastern united states. Allows for the northeast/eastnortheast movement of the coastal low which no other model shows. FWIW ECMWF shows a vort max racing across SE Texas but has the greatest development south of the border where eventuall...
by Andrew
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:15 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

GFS coming in more over SE Texas versus southern Texas which makes sense since it doesn't develop a closed low. Looking at expected shear levels over the northwest gulf while there may be periods of low shear and quick development it doesn't last too long on Sunday night. I think the latest solution...
by Andrew
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Looks like WPC is backing off a little too with more of the convection staying further south/more developed low.
by Andrew
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:08 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

ECMWF and GFS have backed off quite a bit and show highest totals closer to the coast which makes the most sense. One thing we will have to monitor is any mesoscale banding that could occur. That is where you will, of course, see your higher totals and flooding issues. As it stands today I feel good...
by Andrew
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:42 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Gotcha, thanks...so Andrew do u think it will be a more organized system ? Probably not, but some type of surface low might develop during the day on Sunday or Monday focusing things closer to the to the center of the low pressure. Looks like as it stands ECMWF and CMC show that happening while the...
by Andrew
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

stormlover wrote:Srain, the icon, Cmc, Euro, show more of the moisture towards the south more, when do u think the models are going to really latch on ?


More organization will result in further south bullseye for rain while less organized system would be more sheared/northern bullseye
by Andrew
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible
Replies: 421
Views: 31265
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