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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead

Someone in Texas is bound to get a deluge with this. I’m not sure how the models are being so conservative with qpf totals. Doesn’t make any sense to me. I mean just look at the track and strength of this hurricane :shock: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP24/refresh/EP242018_5day_cone_no_l...
by Ptarmigan
Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Image

Near Marble Falls. :shock: :o
by Ptarmigan
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224

Re: ENSO Updates

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

Region 1+2 and 3.4 cooled. Region 3 is the same, while Regio 4 warmed.
by Ptarmigan
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: ENSO Updates
Replies: 601
Views: 195026

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Inside the eye of Hurricane Michael. Dead calm surrounded by strong wind and heavy rain. :shock: :o

https://youtu.be/H-iRXYRRGXQ

https://youtu.be/JWkgFz3e__w
by Ptarmigan
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224

Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catast

Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/Paleo/Liu-Fearn_2000.pdf It is a study from 1998. No catastrophic hurricane of category 4 or 5 intensity has made landfall in the Western ...
by Ptarmigan
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catast
Replies: 0
Views: 32

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Kludge wrote:I recorded 9.7 inches overnight... and actually that all happened in a 5-1/2 hour period. Crazy downpours and amazing lightning. :shock:


Some areas got nearly a foot of rain from NWS Houston.
by Ptarmigan
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:50 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Clearly we will see heartbreaking devastation across the Panama City to Apalachicola Region and inland where it is heavily forested through Tallahassee in to SW Georgia. Sadly it appears almost half the folks near the Coast did not evacuate. David Paul had a graphic up yesterday of a CAT 3 inland 1...
by Ptarmigan
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Michael is more intense than the most intense Texas hurricane, the 1886 Indianola Hurricane. It had a central pressure of 925 millibars. :shock: :o
by Ptarmigan
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224

Re: ENSO Updates

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed up.

El Nino is looking more likely.
by Ptarmigan
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: ENSO Updates
Replies: 601
Views: 195026

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

EPAC Hurricane Sergio and its remnants likely will be a wildcard regarding our sensible weather next weekend as it merges with that Fall Cold Front. Over running clouds and possibly mid/upper level moisture and strong fronts can lead to rainfall after the front passes giving us cool and gloomy weat...
by Ptarmigan
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: OCTOBER 2018 - Active WX Pattern Ahead
Replies: 252
Views: 20224
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