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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

00z GFS has BOMBED! Wintry weather to the gulf coast now and snow in New Orleans by Christmas. 1058+mb high building in out of Canada and the polar vortex setting up shop in the northern plaines with 480 thickness into Minnesota. Don't get too attached. No model looks like the next but it's encourag...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:35 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Anybody else tossing the 18z? It makes no sense. Not only does it bring the front in a full day later (18z Saturday) but it's significantly warmer than any previous model and does away with the winter storm completely. That raises a bigger eyebrow than the 12z GFS that was blistering cold. This is c...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

FWD AFD: Medium range models continue to show good consistency with a cold front arriving Thursday night and early Friday morning. Ahead of the cold front on Thursday, partial sunshine combined with veering, warm, low level flow will likely assist highs back into the lower 70s, except possibly the i...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

From HGX's AFD: .EXTENDED DISCUSSION /THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS/... Speculation continues about the forecast for the weekend before Christmas. CIPS Extended Analogs have shown a consistent signal for sub-freezing temperatures to reach at least parts of Southeast Texas sometime during the December...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

12z Euro is in and I don't see too many differences right off the bat. I do see it's pretty cold the day after Christmas but still only showing highs in the mid 40s the days before and on Christmas. Nothing that is Earth shattering. It keeps all precip liquid as well. 12z GFS is comparable to the Eu...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Well the 12z GFS was certainly an eyebrow raiser. 1058 mb high dropping into the northern plains. Winter weather more robust and widespread across Texas. Still coming in...let's see what happens.
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:40 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

So no '83 or '89 type cold? This was probably the 50th time it has been mentioned in the last 10 years and once again, not going to happen, not even close actually. Kind of silly for that to be mentioned every single time an Arctic front shows up in the models 2 weeks out. lol I'm hoping it stays a...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:41 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Yea looking like only rain here. Even if we do get to below freezing at the surface with such a potent warm nose everything would most likely come down as rain. Opposite setup of the other week where above the surface was all below freezing. Looking more and more likely that the Christmas eve/23rd ...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:39 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Looking at the 00z/06z GFS and the Saturday 00z Euro, it's definitely going to get cold but as the event draws closer, I think the warm nose will be pretty stout and difficult to overcome. The 00z Euro brings the front in around 12z Friday (compared to 18z on the previous 12z and between 18 and 20z ...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:54 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

From this moring's AFD out of FWD: Some larger changes are possible in the day 8-10 time period when models have persistently shown deep troughing engulfing much of the Central US. This pattern would be favorable for delivering multiple shots of arctic air to the Central US and Southern Plains, the ...
by KHOU BLake
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28104
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