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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

So no '83 or '89 type cold? This was probably the 50th time it has been mentioned in the last 10 years and once again, not going to happen, not even close actually. Kind of silly for that to be mentioned every single time an Arctic front shows up in the models 2 weeks out. lol I'm hoping it stays a...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:41 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Yea looking like only rain here. Even if we do get to below freezing at the surface with such a potent warm nose everything would most likely come down as rain. Opposite setup of the other week where above the surface was all below freezing. Looking more and more likely that the Christmas eve/23rd ...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:39 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Looking at the 00z/06z GFS and the Saturday 00z Euro, it's definitely going to get cold but as the event draws closer, I think the warm nose will be pretty stout and difficult to overcome. The 00z Euro brings the front in around 12z Friday (compared to 18z on the previous 12z and between 18 and 20z ...
by KHOU BLake
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:54 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

From this moring's AFD out of FWD: Some larger changes are possible in the day 8-10 time period when models have persistently shown deep troughing engulfing much of the Central US. This pattern would be favorable for delivering multiple shots of arctic air to the Central US and Southern Plains, the ...
by KHOU BLake
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Hard to argue with that kind of consistency. 18z is also the most aggressive yet with not one but several rounds of wintry weather, beginning as ice and ending as snow. Interesting days ahead.
by KHOU BLake
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

As this possible winter weather event unfolds, it's always a good idea to get the perspective of surrounding WFO's as to what they're calling for. Remember, everything comes from upstream. Here's a snip from this morning's AFD from FWD: ...A front will pass Sunday night into Monday but temperatures ...
by KHOU BLake
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

We're just monitoring for the trends. It's way too early to get specific with numbers and duration, gang. To dismiss the 15 consecutive runs of the GFS because the operational ECMWF doesn't show anything isn't wise -- especially when the Euro Ensembles match the GEFS. As far as 1983 and 1989 go, the...
by KHOU BLake
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

SSW initializing as we get our first front and then (it seems) that we would be poised to get the hammer dropped on us leading into New Years. I know it’s a ways out but this has a feel of a week to two week cold snap that hasn’t been seen in quite sometime. Hmm, in years? Last year (of all years) ...
by KHOU BLake
Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Anybody see the temperature anomalies from the 12z GFS today by the end of the run? A 1056 mb high dropping into central Montana with departures running 25+ degrees below normal. Seems to be lots of hints in the long range in each model run of a big shift to drastically colder temps nation wide. Def...
by KHOU BLake
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337

Re: Christmas Week and the "interesting" pattern evolving

18z GFS continues the idea of a winter storm of some sorts for a large swath of central and north Texas.
by KHOU BLake
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 486
Views: 26337
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