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Re: April 2017 - Weekend Heavy Rainfall/Storms Possible

The line seems to be starting to organize more.
by don
Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2017 - Saturday Cool Front/Pleasant WX Ahead
Replies: 225
Views: 13561

Re: April 2017 - Weekend Heavy Rainfall/Storms Possible

I definitely agree with that also, the mesoscale models have not been handling the line of storms well, they seem to be playing "catch up" the latest hrrr hints at the line possibly re strengthening once it gets into southeast Texas. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2017040215/houston/hr...
by don
Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:54 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2017 - Saturday Cool Front/Pleasant WX Ahead
Replies: 225
Views: 13561

Re: April 2017 - Weekend Heavy Rainfall/Storms Possible

Wow, not sure if I can remember seeing a moderate risk for the area at Day 2. Here's a snippet from their discussion about our area: ...Southeastern Plains into northwestern Gulf coast region... Aforementioned warm sector environment conditions appear more than favorable for organized severe storm d...
by don
Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:11 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2017 - Saturday Cool Front/Pleasant WX Ahead
Replies: 225
Views: 13561

Re: April 2017 - Weekend Heavy Rainfall/Storms Possible

GFS may be trending wetter again,12z Gfs shows a decent amount of rain over the county (2-4 inches) compared to the last few runs which showed only 1-2 inches over the area. fwiw
by don
Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:45 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2017 - Saturday Cool Front/Pleasant WX Ahead
Replies: 225
Views: 13561

Re: January 2017 - Early January/Tracking Arctic Cold

fwiw the ECMWF shows some frozen precipitation in Southeast Texas as the brunt of the cold air arrives. It also has lows getting down into the mid to low 20s across the area.
by don
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month
Replies: 510
Views: 52768

Re: January 2017 - Early January/Tracking Arctic Cold

The 12z GFS is now matching the last 2 runs of the Para GFS, with showing a band of mix precipitation moving from Southcentral Texas to Southeast Texas late next week, it even shows snow accumulation fwiw... lol :lol: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_s...
by don
Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:46 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month
Replies: 510
Views: 52768

Re: December 2016- Tracking Arctic Air/Christmas Outlook

GFS looks kinda interesting at hour 252 fwiw....
by don
Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2016- End Of Year Forecast
Replies: 487
Views: 46548

Re: August 2016: Rain Chances Continue. Heat Returns

Yeah the UKMET shows this feature also...
by don
Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.
Replies: 517
Views: 43110

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

One interesting thing to note is that some of the models (Euro,NAM,UKMET) show what appears to be a possible depression or weak tropical storm in the northwest gulf moving towards the Texas coastline around the same time future Hermine is in the gulf,which could be influencing the track of 99l.
by don
Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56646

Re: JUNE 2016 - Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Possible Into Weeken

HRRR shows the rain band expanding and lasting through the day, it shows 3-4+ inches of rain in some areas even in Harris County, as storms start to train later on today at least according to the model. Texas WRF model also hints at this.
by don
Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:54 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible
Replies: 499
Views: 47537
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