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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

The NWS mentioned in their discussion this afternoon that a Flash Flood watch may be required this weekend. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 401 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018 .DISCUSSION... Rain chances ramping up for the weekend and heavy rain threat. This afternoon r...
by don
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0835.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0835 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 929 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Areas affected...TX Coast & Vicinity Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 141328Z - 141858Z Summary.....
by don
Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:32 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Looks like the system is trying to become a depression before landfall, it probably won't be classified though due to lack of a windfield and proximity to land. We really need to watch the radar today to make sure training doesn't set up...
by don
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:50 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Several of the mesoscale models have 95L riding along the coast and making landfall on the middle Texas coast, maybe that's why they have that area shaded.
by don
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

12z HWRF has a Tropical Depression/Storm near Port Aransas with heavy bands of rain moving into Southeast Texas.
by don
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Back to 70%.... Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane H...
by don
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

The 12z RGEM develops 95L into a tropical storm right before landfall near Port Aransas, with feeder bands moving through Southeast Texas.

Image
by don
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:23 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

The 6z HWRF starts showing development tomorrow, and forms 95l into a Tropical Storm right before landfall Friday around Matagorda Bay, with heavy rain bands moving through the area. It's starting to look like this may be one of those "sneaky" homebrew systems that don't develop until the ...
by don
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area? A Landfall between CC and Matagorda would put SETX on the dirty side. Do you think it will landfall north of Corpus, instead of around Baffin Bay? The 12z Euro did move north from Baffin Bay to Por...
by don
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

With a lopsided system like this seems it may be, you don't have to be near the center to get strong effects from the storm if you're on the dirty side,in fact sometimes the worse of the storm is displaced to the north and east of the center of circulation.
by don
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 627
Views: 51155
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