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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Can you let this Louisiana boy know how far east it spreads? Thank you. If the 12Z GFS is correct, you SE Louisiana folks may see freezing temperatures (near hard freeze criteria) just West of New Orleans and along and N of the I-10 Corridor on the 27th and 28th. Blake and I were just discussing ho...
by srainhoutx
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:12 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Way too much volatility (model flip flopping from run to run including the ECMWF) leads to a highly uncertain forecast with significant bust potential is why it is important to wait until at least mid next week before biting off on any reasonable solution regarding next week. The Saturday morning br...
by srainhoutx
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:03 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

We are starting to see some wording in our local SE Texas AFD that suggests as the weekend ends and we begin next week, eyes turn to potential winter weather worries... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 338 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 DISCUSSION... Unsettled weather l...
by srainhoutx
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

I see the 12Z ECMWF came in with some impressive QPF totals of 2 to 3 inch amounts for the end of next week into the Christmas Holiday weekend with some rather chilly air at the surface. The afternoon Update CPC Day 8-14 Outlook suggests very chilly and wet weather is possible as we head toward the ...
by srainhoutx
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Friday morning briefing from Jeff: Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall likely Saturday night A surface cold front has moved off the coast with widespread rain confined to the offshore water this morning being enhanced by an impulse in the upper level flow. A storm system currently over...
by srainhoutx
Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:23 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

We have an active and very progressive weather pattern setting up over the next week and likely beyond as folks start the Christmas Holiday period along with many with travel plans. Radar shows a lot of activity over the Gulf this morning associated with our noisy sub tropical jet and embedded distu...
by srainhoutx
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:36 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests colder and wetter weather may be possible over the long Christmas Holiday period. Also I see the 12Z GEFS 700mb charts suggest a rather deep SW to NE trough across our part of the World. Still a highly uncertain forecast, s...
by srainhoutx
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff: A weak cold front will cross the region this evening with rain chances increasing Saturday and Saturday night. Low confidence forecast next week and beyond A weak cold front will move across the region today and tonight with high clouds streaming across the area....
by srainhoutx
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:49 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

I'm a little more interested in the shorter range forecast regarding our sensible weather. Looks like we may have a shot at some rain Saturday night into Sunday with some over running rain continuing into early next week. That noisy sub tropical jet that has brought all the mid/high level cloudiness...
by srainhoutx
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:33 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Looking at the 12Z Ensemble Northern Hemisphere view for a week from this Saturday (December 23rd), I see no significant changes in the overall thinking in the expected upper air pattern. I always caution the use of individual operational runs of any given model beyond 3 to 5 days. Remember it wasn'...
by srainhoutx
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 509
Views: 28096
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