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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

We have an active and very progressive weather pattern setting up over the next week and likely beyond as folks start the Christmas Holiday period along with many with travel plans. Radar shows a lot of activity over the Gulf this morning associated with our noisy sub tropical jet and embedded distu...
by srainhoutx
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:36 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests colder and wetter weather may be possible over the long Christmas Holiday period. Also I see the 12Z GEFS 700mb charts suggest a rather deep SW to NE trough across our part of the World. Still a highly uncertain forecast, s...
by srainhoutx
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff: A weak cold front will cross the region this evening with rain chances increasing Saturday and Saturday night. Low confidence forecast next week and beyond A weak cold front will move across the region today and tonight with high clouds streaming across the area....
by srainhoutx
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:49 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

I'm a little more interested in the shorter range forecast regarding our sensible weather. Looks like we may have a shot at some rain Saturday night into Sunday with some over running rain continuing into early next week. That noisy sub tropical jet that has brought all the mid/high level cloudiness...
by srainhoutx
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:33 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Looking at the 12Z Ensemble Northern Hemisphere view for a week from this Saturday (December 23rd), I see no significant changes in the overall thinking in the expected upper air pattern. I always caution the use of individual operational runs of any given model beyond 3 to 5 days. Remember it wasn'...
by srainhoutx
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff: Significant forecast changes required this morning for this weekend Major arctic air intrusion possible around Christmas Models have come into somewhat better agreement that a strong storm system will cross the area this weekend. This will require a significant ...
by srainhoutx
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:45 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

While the overnight Updated GEFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs suggest December 1983 as the top Analog, I'd be a bit cautious 10+ days away and I notice the Analog date in December 1983 overnight was about 10 ahead of what actually happened in Texas and Oklahoma back on Christmas Eve 1983. While th...
by srainhoutx
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:14 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: Christmas Week and the "interesting" pattern evolving

I see that wxman57 has edited the December Topic Title to cover the Christmas potential. We'll leave this Topic open for several days and likely merge it into the December Topic to avoid any confusion and to keep a central Topic for historical purposes if things turn wintry for the second time in a ...
by srainhoutx
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: Christmas Week and the "interesting" pattern evolving

The GEFS/ECMWF EPS Ensembles are fairly consistent with a highly amplified pattern as Christmas arrives. While it is far too soon to know the "finer details" at this range of 2 weeks out, the indicators we look to in the longer range do raise an eyebrow. Christmas Week could be very chilly...
by srainhoutx
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:38 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Yesterday, srain mentioned something about long term ensembles indicating another cold blast coming in the 12 day range, maybe? Any updates on that? Thanks very much. I continue to see temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms throughout the next week or two with a couple of dry reinforcin...
by srainhoutx
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23130
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