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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

The sensitivity to the genesis point is huge for this forecast. Until the models figure that out, we are going to be pretty much clueless. The farther west genesis occurs, the more likely this thing heads toward TX.
by am19psu
Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:53 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States
Replies: 547
Views: 51443

Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Gah. How did this storm go from a quick spin up to a monsoon depression. What a mess. Hopefully y'all can get some better rains than currently modeled out of this.
by am19psu
Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States
Replies: 547
Views: 51443

Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

The 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive today with developing a Western Gulf disturbance. We may need to keep an eye out for a quick spin up and just possibly a depression or tropical storm forming. We will see... I like the idea of a quick spin up in the Western Gulf this week, but probably a bit qui...
by am19psu
Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:33 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States
Replies: 547
Views: 51443

Re: 90L - GOM Bound?

There's a TUTT in the channel that's going to muck things up all week. Best case scenario for a TC, imo, is a rapid spin up 12-18 hours before landfall on Thursday. I think it's more likely to remain open.
by am19psu
Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"
Replies: 342
Views: 31761

Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development

It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves. I definitely think it bears watching. Looking at the steering flow in the ensembles, there is a lot of spread. The GFS ensembles forecast the ridge to set up farther west, which would take whatever forms towards you guys. OTOH, the Euro ensemble ...
by am19psu
Wed Jun 29, 2011 7:11 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End
Replies: 590
Views: 59394

Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development

Similar setup to Alex of last year (steering current-wise), but a good bit less moisture and no circulation evident on TPW loops. I don't tend to get very excited about models predicting development 7-10 days or more out, as was the case early last week for today's "hurricane in the Gulf"...
by am19psu
Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:14 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End
Replies: 590
Views: 59394

Re: June - Rain This Week??

wxmx wrote:Thanks Steve. I really hope my "experience in long range forecasts" gets stomped over... we really need the rains.

Man, they'll let anyone post here :)

Hopefully, the models are right in getting more moisture in the W Gulf. The large scale pattern should be in your favor.
by am19psu
Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June Ends - Hottest on Record
Replies: 458
Views: 41974

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