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Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

The Global Hawk will be doing some drops over 99l before heading towards Gaston. Mission leaves at 4. So far with all the data coming in the westward trend has stopped with a bias more to the E and intensity has gone way down - But I think the models are still having issues that there remains more u...
by Scott747
Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Still would like to see the 0z runs with full data, but.... Bad news is that 99l looks like it will make it much further into the Gulf. Good news is that it's on life support right now and the environment as modeled isn't the most conducive. Still PLENTY of time to track, conditions to change and mo...
by Scott747
Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Heh.

18z GFS says go west 99l.

And I mean way west so far.
by Scott747
Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Gaston & INVEST 99L

Srain, does this mean the models will trend back to the west again due to the stout ridge? There was a slight shift West with the 12Z track guidance. I would rather wait until we have an actual storm declared and at least another 24 to 48 hours after TC genesis to get a better 'feel' of the synopti...
by Scott747
Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:38 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

And the windshield wiping continues...

18z GFS is further W, faster and disorganized. Still another 4 cycles or so before we may get 'some' confidence in models. Around 0z tomorrow night.
by Scott747
Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

LLC is quickly racing off to the northwest while the MLC and convection stay off to the south. It will be interesting to see if convection starts to form on the northwest side or if the MLC takes over and makes its way to the surface. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/rgb_lalo-an...
by Scott747
Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Timing is slower compared to 0z.
by Scott747
Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

So far the 12z euro is just a shade further w through 96 hr. Ridging remains stout.

It's also a little weaker on the approach to S Fla.
by Scott747
Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

sambucol wrote:When is the next EURO model run?


Starts rolling out around 1 and takes about an hour.
by Scott747
Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Well as folks get up in the morning everyone should take a deep breath. 0z Euro shows a landfalling cat 4 around the Sabine Pass to Cameron area next Thursday. We are still in a long enough range that there should be changes in the models with different solutions. No doubt that as today unfolded the...
by Scott747
Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:54 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 56645
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