Search found 328 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

12Z ECWMF...eeek! Shows massive rains with peak accumulations of 32 inches over portions of SE/SC TX. A tropical system moving up from the SSE into a frontal zone should be of concern in this state. Even if the landfall is over NE MX...we have seen many times the real disaster is over TX from inland...
by jeff
Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:16 pm
 
Global announcement: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery
Replies: 1762
Views: 120710

Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ TS Franklin NW Caribbean Sea

Always keep an eye on an MVC in 2.0+ inch PW air mass with light winds aloft. Lack of good low level inflow may keep things from organizing much...although coastal outflow boundary from earlier is starting to wash out and return of southerly 10-15kt inflow is likely around midnight over the area. HR...
by jeff
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:28 pm
 
Global announcement: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery
Replies: 1762
Views: 120710

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

I'd watch this one (90L). Ensembles are slightly more bullish and more north than most of the operational runs. Fairly confident we will see at least a tropical storm in the Gulf this time next week. Would not rule out a hurricane.
by jeff
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:43 pm
 
Global announcement: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery
Replies: 1762
Views: 120710

Re: January 2017 - Arctic Cold Front/Hard Freeze Warning

It's a chilly 19 degrees here!! Brrrr. Coldest morning in many years. That'll zap a lot of plants for sure!! Unfortunately that's cold enough to kill a lot of zone 9 plants. We were not prepared for temps quite this cold. Yes, Jeff, those few degrees DO make a big difference to gardeners and the ne...
by jeff
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:35 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month
Replies: 510
Views: 68934

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Ridging...ridging...ridging! The more and stronger ridging...the more west it will go. Ensembles were showing this yesterday and the ops runs are now showing this today. Use the upper air pattern and the ensembles and don't focus on the flip flopping operational runs. Starting to see some decent tra...
by jeff
Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 73216

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more lik...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 73216

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of t...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 73216

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of th...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 73216

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Fiona, Invest 99L & Invest 90L

A lot of ridging along the US east coast forecasted in all the long range models being forced by upstream central US trough. Pattern favors E US ridge...note the drought conditions over the NE US. Will likely see extended range model tracks bend more left with time. Big question is when if at all do...
by jeff
Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 73216

Re: INVEST 97L: Strong Tropical Disturbance: Central Atlanti

CMC 983mb hurricane into NE MX, GFS has a 1009mb low heading for S TX, and the EURO shows an open wave into the WC Gulf. Something to watch, but not be alarmed about.
by jeff
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche
Replies: 84
Views: 11330
Next

Return to advanced search