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Re: January 2017 - Arctic Cold Front/Hard Freeze Warning

It's a chilly 19 degrees here!! Brrrr. Coldest morning in many years. That'll zap a lot of plants for sure!! Unfortunately that's cold enough to kill a lot of zone 9 plants. We were not prepared for temps quite this cold. Yes, Jeff, those few degrees DO make a big difference to gardeners and the ne...
by jeff
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:35 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month
Replies: 510
Views: 62378

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Ridging...ridging...ridging! The more and stronger ridging...the more west it will go. Ensembles were showing this yesterday and the ops runs are now showing this today. Use the upper air pattern and the ensembles and don't focus on the flip flopping operational runs. Starting to see some decent tra...
by jeff
Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 65652

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more lik...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 65652

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of t...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 65652

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of th...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 65652

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Fiona, Invest 99L & Invest 90L

A lot of ridging along the US east coast forecasted in all the long range models being forced by upstream central US trough. Pattern favors E US ridge...note the drought conditions over the NE US. Will likely see extended range model tracks bend more left with time. Big question is when if at all do...
by jeff
Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 65652

Re: INVEST 97L: Strong Tropical Disturbance: Central Atlanti

CMC 983mb hurricane into NE MX, GFS has a 1009mb low heading for S TX, and the EURO shows an open wave into the WC Gulf. Something to watch, but not be alarmed about.
by jeff
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche
Replies: 84
Views: 10241

Re: May 2016: Unsettled Weather Through Tuesday Then Drier

still a good cap to overcome. Never turn your back on a boundary in a tropical air mass...but capping continues to hold convection down. Vis satellite shows increasing breaks...but not sure we will be able to break the cap. Meso guidance not very excited about convection.
by jeff
Sun May 01, 2016 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May
Replies: 596
Views: 49110

Re: April 2016 - Severe WX/Excessive Rainfall Threat This We

Several meso models really blast the area overnight with a W to E training line. Tremendous rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hr on top of wet grounds equals a dangerous flash flood setup.

I stress....Turn Around Don't Drown. We must make a strong effort to prevent flood fatalities in vehicles.
by jeff
Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather
Replies: 689
Views: 54859

Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Pattern setup this weekend into early next week is getting concerning with respect to heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 00Z GFS crushes the area with rainfall late Sunday-early Tuesday showing 9.23 inches at IAH. I would not believe this amount nor this run...but the overall consensus is big rains ...
by jeff
Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:23 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather
Replies: 689
Views: 54859
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