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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Hello folks...new to your forum as a poster but been lurking as a guest for a long time. I am a weather loving guy! I think atmospheric science is very interesting to follow and attempt to understand as an amature. I love that you pros take the time to explain and paint a picture that the amature c...
by Belmer
Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 682
Views: 57050

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - Labor Day Weekend Outlook

stormlover wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2018082912&fh=192


Ah. I miss the key words there, 'other GFS model'.
by Belmer
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 682
Views: 57050

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - Labor Day Weekend Outlook

stormlover wrote:other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA



Are you talking about the 12z run? That shows a TD, maybe a weak TS impacting SETX next Friday.
by Belmer
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 682
Views: 57050

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - Labor Day Weekend Outlook

Nothing to get worked up about at the moment, but while the Euro and GFS show some 'energy' heading our way late next week, the NAM is also trying to spin something up in the central and eastern Gulf come this Saturday. Time only goes out till Saturday afternoon, but regardless of development, a slu...
by Belmer
Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:08 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week
Replies: 682
Views: 57050

Re: AUGUST 2018 - Hot &Dry/Rain Returns This Weekend

yep belmer!!! not trying to scare anyone but could be lke a rita type track Well that wasn't my intention to scare anyone by what I said. I see your point on the track of how those storms played out, but I see nothing on the magnitude (as far as strength) coming into the GoM. All I am seeing right ...
by Belmer
Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August
Replies: 264
Views: 24674

Re: AUGUST 2018 - Hot &Dry/Rain Returns This Weekend

CMC, GFS, Euro, Navy all show something towards florida straits,ridge is stout also Agree, I am seeing a lot of signs that the ridge out east, off of Florida, looks to really strengthen by late next week, which would seem to steer anything coming through the Caribbean or southern Bahamas to basical...
by Belmer
Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August
Replies: 264
Views: 24674

Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see ...
by Belmer
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances
Replies: 274
Views: 27231

Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a...
by Belmer
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances
Replies: 274
Views: 27231

Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook/Wet Week Ahead

It is quite concerning to see the HRRR show run after run with areas in Brazoria and Galveston counties getting 10-12 inches of rain overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Thankfully there won't be much of a morning commute due to the Holiday... but that will cause serious flooding no matter how d...
by Belmer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances
Replies: 274
Views: 27231

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Nice convective band starting to come ashore in Galveston. Looks like it should ride up I-45 through downtown within the next hour or two. Lot of stratiform behind that... we'll need to keep an eye to see if deeper convection develops and follows the initial rainband coming in right now.
by Belmer
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns
Replies: 722
Views: 57443
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