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Re: Ex Tropical Depression 7: In The Western Caribbean

sambucol wrote:
perk wrote:The 18Z GFS may raise a few eyebrows for SE Texas.

Why?



Check the 18Z GFS run, i'm not saying SE Texas will get a big bad storm,but we could see some rain if it's right.
by perk
Tue Aug 14, 2012 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene: Dissipated Over Mexico
Replies: 137
Views: 13937

Re: Ex Tropical Depression 7: In The Western Caribbean

The 18Z GFS may raise a few eyebrows for SE Texas.
by perk
Tue Aug 14, 2012 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene: Dissipated Over Mexico
Replies: 137
Views: 13937

Re: Disturbed Weather in the NE Caribbean

biggerbyte wrote:This link shows not only Ernie, but the possible trouble in the NE Caribbean you mention. Very intriguing, indeed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html



Even more interesting this morning,alot of convection down there.
by perk
Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:11 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Disturbed Weather in the NE Caribbean
Replies: 3
Views: 1182

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Heading Towrad The NW Caribbean

Heh, and here I was about to put to bed any hopes of Ernesto providing us with welcomed rains. HPC offers a little encouragement this morning! THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST...AT A FORWARD SPEED OF AT LEAST 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ...
by perk
Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:14 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico
Replies: 356
Views: 32315

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: In the Eastern Caribbean

sambucol wrote:The 11 am NHC track appears to be a tad bit more north of the 5 am track.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents



Avila said in the 11am disco that the track is heavily biased to the global models which are trending more south.
by perk
Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:05 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico
Replies: 356
Views: 32315

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: In the Eastern Caribbean

000 WTNT45 KNHC 041445 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A REC...
by perk
Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:00 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico
Replies: 356
Views: 32315

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: In the Eastern Caribbean

Portastorm wrote:Strong consensus at the moment for Ernesto's east-central Mexican coast landfall. That would seem to match what some of our pro mets are thinking as well.



(At the moment) are the important key words in your post,6 or 7 days out who knows.
by perk
Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:48 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico
Replies: 356
Views: 32315

Re: Tropical Storm Debby. Warnings Issued For LA/AL/NW FL

I WANT A PRO MET TO GIVE A FULL EXPLANATION AS TO,,,WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON WITH ALL THIS? HOW COULD THE MODELS BE SO WRONG,,WHY IS THE TRACK CHANGING? I agree how can so many models get it wrong,especially the (as the NHC says the euro a good performing model)get it wrong and the GFS an outlier ...
by perk
Sun Jun 24, 2012 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic
Replies: 540
Views: 41439

Re: Tropical Storm Debby. Watches Issued For Louisiana

Jeff thanks for the info especially the (CLARIFICATION) on the GFS and how this can affect the upper Texas coast.
by perk
Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic
Replies: 540
Views: 41439

Re: Tropical Storm Debby. Watches Issued For Louisiana

Scott747 wrote:lol

You had to know with Stewart on the desk it would be a 'bullish' forecast.



I think Stewart writes a great forecast.It did'nt seem bullish to me at all,but it was very informative.
by perk
Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic
Replies: 540
Views: 41439
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