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Re: February 2016:Tracking Early Month Plains Winter Storm

Thank you for your response. I follow your forum all the time from SE La.
by harpman
Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month
Replies: 177
Views: 20768

Re: February 2016:Tracking Early Month Plains Winter Storm

The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas. 01302016 12Z Euro 240 sfcmslpna.png 01302016 12Z Euro 240 500hcf...
by harpman
Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month
Replies: 177
Views: 20768

Re: February 2016:Tracking Early Month Plains Winter Storm

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks! Basically we are seeing a lot of run to run volatility in the longer range guidance. Some of that volatility may be related to the various Hemispheric phenomena developing such as Polar Stratospheric Warming as well as other indices related to what actua...
by harpman
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month
Replies: 177
Views: 20768

Re: February 2016:Tracking Early Month Plains Winter Storm

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!
by harpman
Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month
Replies: 177
Views: 20768

Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

December was warm. I hope that's not happening again.
by harpman
Sun Jan 24, 2016 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month
Replies: 177
Views: 20768

Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

srainhoutx wrote:Interesting pattern IF the 12Z Euro is correct... ;)

01242016 12Z Euro 5H 240.png


01242016 12Z Euro 850 240.png


01242016 MJO ECMWF ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif



Can you interpret this?
by harpman
Sun Jan 24, 2016 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month
Replies: 177
Views: 20768

Re: January 2016: Severe Weather Followed By Colder Temperat

BigThicket wrote:If the cold air flows into Texas it will move east with the expansion of the easterly migrating trough so you will get your fair share and if it were to go more east you definitely will.


Looks like all the northern Gulf coast would! Even those of us in south Louisiana.
by harpman
Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook
Replies: 385
Views: 37381

Re: January 2016: Chilly & Unsettled Pattern Ahead

Beginning to see some strong signals via the ensembles of rather significant Blocking signature particularly over Greenland where heights are very impressive. Notice the developing deep trough settling well S into Mexico. We may be seeing signs via the guidance that those Teleconnection Indices may...
by harpman
Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook
Replies: 385
Views: 37381

Re: January 2016: Chilly & Unsettled Pattern Ahead

It's way too soon to worry about temperatures much less accurately predicting the shortwave features beyond 3 to be 5 days out. That said the ensembles are advertising some mighty big Hemispheric changes are in the offing. The teleconnection indices during this progressive El Nino Winter Pattern ar...
by harpman
Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook
Replies: 385
Views: 37381

Re: January 2016: Chilly & Unsettled Pattern Ahead

LOL, 18z GFS keeps parts of SE Texas below freezing from 288 to 384 with single digits showing up in that range. :shock: :lol: We don't need extreme cold to have wintry fun. If it's too cold, it's as though it saps all the moisture. I would take 30 to 35. Also, does anyone know if the air mass is g...
by harpman
Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook
Replies: 385
Views: 37381
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