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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

I'm seeing rainfall reports across Harris County ranging from a bit under an inch over the past 2 days to near 4.5 inches. I've measured about 1.5 inches since last Friday in SW Houston (Westbury - just south of Brays Bayou near Hillcroft). More rain coming the rest of this week.
by wxman57
Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns
Replies: 694
Views: 46328

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Development chances still appear slim. Chances of widespread rainfall totals 2-5 inches look high. Could be some training of echoes in some locations that may result in rainfall totals of 10 inches, or more. Impossible to tell where those locations will be. Generally a beneficial rain event, with so...
by wxman57
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:57 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns
Replies: 694
Views: 46328

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Looks like widespread 2-5 inches across our area Sun-Tue. Not expecting anything remotely close to Harvey. Perhaps some brief street flooding at times, but that's about it. No hurricane threat.
by wxman57
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns
Replies: 694
Views: 46328

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Significant tropical development still looks unlikely. Models are in good agreement on widespread 2-4" rainfall totals across much of the the Texas coastal counties through next Tuesday morning. Can't rule out the disturbance developing a circulation before moving ashore, but this doesn't look ...
by wxman57
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:42 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns
Replies: 694
Views: 46328

Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Regardless of what may or may not develop in the NW Caribbean late next week, I don't see it "threatening" us with any rainfall. Hot and dry to continue.
by wxman57
Fri May 18, 2018 11:28 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions
Replies: 12
Views: 1372

Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Took it. Interesting. Thanks, I thought it would be interesting, too. I saw someone tweet about a study of those term a few weeks ago, but not with respect to weather terms. We use such terms all the time in our forecasts, with our own interpretations of what they mean for our clients. That's why w...
by wxman57
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:14 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Survey - Perception of Probability
Replies: 6
Views: 446

Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

So far, the perceptions by those on social media are matching up fairly closely to those by meteorologists.
by wxman57
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Survey - Perception of Probability
Replies: 6
Views: 446

Survey - Perception of Probability

We are conducting a survey on the perception of probability. What do terms like "Highly Likely", "Probably", or "We Doubt" mean to you in terms of a percentage chance of occurrence? There are about a dozen questions in the survey. We've been comparing the results from m...
by wxman57
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Survey - Perception of Probability
Replies: 6
Views: 446

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Cold and rainy here on S. Padre Island this afternoon. About 68 degrees, windy, and raining as of 3pm.
by wxman57
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 36
Views: 2738

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Overnight ECMWF is even warmer - lows in the low 70s and highs in the mid 80s.
by wxman57
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:25 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 36
Views: 2738
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