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Re: August 2017: Typical August WX/ Eye On The Tropics

Interesting to see a 10 degree shift further West with the 12Z Best Track. The Statistical Guidance for 91L may begin to trend more Westward in time. The Dynamical Guidance (ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian) probably will not change that much in the near term. The NHC had the wrong feature identified befor...
by wxman57
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35057

Re: August 2017: Hemispheric Pattern Change/Eye On The Tropi

Weak low is present in the central Gulf. Would go with 20% chance of development. Surprised Stacy Stewart didn't mention it in today's outlook, given what we just went through with Emily. Not much model support, but we have to keep a close eye on ANY such features in August/September. It will be mov...
by wxman57
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:56 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Flooding
Replies: 604
Views: 35057

Re: June 2017: TS Cindy/Tropical Storm Warning Issued

Another tweet from StormGeo here in Houston. Their ensembles-based TRAC guidance remains steady on a landfall near eastern Galveston Island. NHC has adjusted their track west, but not quite as far west as this guidance is indicating. I don't think we'll see any tropical storm-force winds here in Hou...
by wxman57
Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 676
Views: 49998

Re: June 2017: ALT PTC #3 / Gulf Of Mexico Threat

StormGeo's TRAC guidance (Threatened Regions from Active Cyclones) suggests PTC Three is Texas-bound. Almost all 50 of the ECMWF ensembles take it to Texas. The GFS is all-in for Louisiana. The battle is on! It would have to make landfall west of Houston for us to get much rain. And don't expect any...
by wxman57
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 676
Views: 49998

Re: June 2017: Hot & Dry Weekend/Watching The Tropics

The trend is for a stronger ridge across the northern Gulf coast early next week, resulting in a more westerly track of this system. I think it will develop 40-45 mph winds by Sunday night, but the circulation may be too poorly-defined and broad for an upgrade until Monday PM or Tuesday AM. It's not...
by wxman57
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:42 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 676
Views: 49998

Re: June 2017: Rain Chances Returns/Watching The Tropics

Cromagnum wrote:It needs to park somewhere where we can catch up on rain. My yard is already trying to die again.


Careful what you wish for. This type of system could produce over 20" of rain in some areas.
by wxman57
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 676
Views: 49998

Re: June 2017: Rain Chances Returns/Watching The Tropics

ticka1 wrote:when do you think they will name it an invest?


Probably Saturday, definitely by Sunday. Tomorrow at the earliest. Somewhere between tonight and Sunday. ;-)
by wxman57
Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 676
Views: 49998

Re: June 2017: Rain Chances Returns/Watching The Tropics

Looks like the 18Z GFS gave up on the Florida hit. It shifted west with a weaker system heading for northern Mexico, though it has it very weak by then. I still like the Euro best. Was in touch with AFMET today (S2K Forum). He is able to view the private military model that did very well with Hermin...
by wxman57
Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
Replies: 676
Views: 49998

Re: Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop - Saturday June 3,

Is anyone going? I heard from srain, he can't make it.
by wxman57
Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop - Saturday June 3, 2017
Replies: 5
Views: 788

Re: Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop - Saturday June 3,

The 2017 Hurricane Workshop is approaching soon! Looks like they're calling it an "Extreme Weather Ready Expo" this year. Who wants to meet for lunch across the street at the Lake House again?

http://www.hurricaneworkshop.com/

Image
by wxman57
Tue May 16, 2017 10:45 am
 
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop - Saturday June 3, 2017
Replies: 5
Views: 788
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