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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Took it. Interesting. Thanks, I thought it would be interesting, too. I saw someone tweet about a study of those term a few weeks ago, but not with respect to weather terms. We use such terms all the time in our forecasts, with our own interpretations of what they mean for our clients. That's why w...
by wxman57
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:14 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Survey - Perception of Probability
Replies: 4
Views: 72

Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

So far, the perceptions by those on social media are matching up fairly closely to those by meteorologists.
by wxman57
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Survey - Perception of Probability
Replies: 4
Views: 72

Survey - Perception of Probability

We are conducting a survey on the perception of probability. What do terms like "Highly Likely", "Probably", or "We Doubt" mean to you in terms of a percentage chance of occurrence? There are about a dozen questions in the survey. We've been comparing the results from m...
by wxman57
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Survey - Perception of Probability
Replies: 4
Views: 72

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Cold and rainy here on S. Padre Island this afternoon. About 68 degrees, windy, and raining as of 3pm.
by wxman57
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Overnight ECMWF is even warmer - lows in the low 70s and highs in the mid 80s.
by wxman57
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:25 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Today's 12Z Euro is 25 degrees warmer for S. Padre next Wed, up into the low 80s vs. a high in the upper 50s in the 00Z run. I like that a lot better.
by wxman57
Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

I definitely don't like the Euro's forecast of a low in the upper 40s next Wednesday and a high in the upper 50s. Not good beach weather at all!

Image
by wxman57
Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:01 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

I've been monitoring the S. Padre weather for next week. Looks like lows in the low 70s and highs in the upper 70s. Possibly some rain on Wednesday as a cold front washes out over south TX. Water temps 75-77 degrees. You'll have to right-click on the image below and choose "view image" to ...
by wxman57
Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:51 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Alex got my plane ticket yesterday. I fly over to Harlingen at 10:55 on Tuesday and fly back at 1:20pm Saturday. I think Brian (Katdaddy) is on the same flight. Still not 100% sure I won't change my return flight to Sunday. April is a busy time for me, though.
by wxman57
Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:48 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527

Re: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference

Just heard from Alex Garcia down there that he wants me to present something at the conference. I plan on flying over Tuesday morning. Not sure if I'll fly back Saturday or Sunday. Could go fishing Saturday and take the dinner cruise that evening.
by wxman57
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference
Replies: 35
Views: 1527
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