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Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

12z makes it 19 in a row showing an arctic front late next week. Comes in much faster too. Arrives Friday morning with a storm arriving at the same time. However, the 12Z GFS doesn't drop temps below freezing in Houston with the front. Upper 30s to low 50s for temps next weekend through Christmas, ...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:00 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?

The American model (GFS) has been predicting another cold outbreak for around the 24th, possibly with sub-freezing air at the surface along with precipitation. However, the GFS shows well above freezing temps just above the surface, which would indicate sleet/freezing rain vs. snow. Keep in mind tha...
by wxman57
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:27 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Went to bed at 1am and the snow was light. Got up a few times between 1 and 7am but didn't see much outside. Looked out at 7am to the images below. First picture is a panorama. http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Pano.JPG http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Front.JPG http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Back.JPG
by wxman57
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:48 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Looks like the 18Z NAM is swinging some stronger vorticity thru the area around Midnight which I'm guessing is related to the uptick in intensity we are seeing on this run. Yes, that's the main upper-level disturbance rotating across our area. With even colder air aloft, it's a perfect setup for sn...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

The 18Z U of H sounding was sent to the Houston/Galveston NWS office. I've been in contact with Dan Reilly over there. It does look like the rain will change to snow tonight. The 18Z NAM snow totals map (below) is impressive, but I suspect it isn't taking into consideration the warm ground and the m...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

This is a reference page for the Skew T that was posted. That's right. The balloon confirmed that the atmospheric profile matched the left image (snow). As I posted elsewhere: Sleet occurs when precipitation encounters an above-freezing layer on its way down, followed by a layer of sub-freezing air...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Just had a look at the 18Z sounding from U of H. Freezing level is at about 2500 ft (768m). Entire precip column is sub-freezing, as the models were predicting. No warm nose. Will have a skew-T shortly. This doesn't mean we'll awaken to a winter wonderland across Houston, just that we have a good ch...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:59 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Just an FYI. As Srain and Wxman 57 have told us in the past, this is still tricky for pro mets all over. It takes all the variables to be just right for this to happen. Many folks ( if this does not happen) will scream bust. Just giving a gentle reminder that it takes all ingredients in the mix to ...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:29 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128

Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib

Both the WRF and NAM are coming in colder aloft and with heavier precip. I've seen many such events over my nearly 4 decades as a meteorologist here, but I've rarely seen the models predicting such cold air aloft. Usually they indicate a warm nose (above-freezing layer) between 5000-10,000 feet up t...
by wxman57
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:01 am
 
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2017: Christmas Cold / Ice Across Texas?
Replies: 445
Views: 23128
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